Daily picks

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds

Country

USA

League

MLB

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 02:15 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 66%. Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 (5.4 runs for, 4.2 against) and lead the H2H 7-3; the Reds are 3-7 with 7.2 runs conceded per game and lost 1-9 and 2-5 to the Cubs; model 68% high quality. Main risk: Single-game baseball variance is high, starting pitchers are unknown, and the Reds won yesterday's series opener.

U. De Concepcion vs CD Puerto Varas

Country

Chile

League

LNB - Clausura - Losers

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Concepcion are 8-2 in their last 10 (95 scored, 79 conceded), lead the H2H 8-2 including the last four meetings, and are at home; model 84% with 100 confidence. Main risk: Concepcion lost 72-79 at Quilpue last week and Puerto Varas have won 3 of their last 5.

Vancouver FC vs Inter Toronto

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 05:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Model double chance 76% (high quality); Inter Toronto are 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 away games (13 conceded, incl. 0-5 at Cavalry and 1-4 at HFX) while Vancouver are unbeaten in their last 5 at home including 4-0 over Toronto in July. Main risk: Inter Toronto won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 13 Sep and lead the overall H2H 6-2.

Seattle Storm W vs Dallas Wings W

Country

USA

League

WNBA

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 05:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Dallas have won all three 2026 meetings (92-70, 112-110, 79-56), are 7-3 in their last 10 while Seattle are 2-8 and lost their last three by 21, 13 and 37 points; model 73%. Main risk: Seattle are at home and lead the all-time recent H2H 6-4; Dallas lost 86-87 at Phoenix last night.

Mongolia W vs China W

Country

Asia

League

Asian Games Women - Play Offs

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 07:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 81%. China beat Indonesia 110-41 and Thailand 111-46 in their two Asian Games outings. Mongolia lost 61-88 to South Korea and 67-76 to Chinese Taipei before beating Malaysia by eight. The current level-of-opposition and scoring gaps favor China. Main risk: Mongolia has only three recent games in the feed, China lost several earlier September games against stronger international opponents, and current roster availability is unverified.

Thailand 3x3 W vs Sri Lanka 3x3 W

Country

Asia

League

Asian Games 3x3 Women

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 07:40 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Thailand beat Indonesia 17-4 and Singapore 14-8 and lost only 12-13 to South Korea in this tournament. Sri Lanka lost 2-21 to China and 8-21 to Kazakhstan, with a 19-16 win over Qatar their only success. Main risk: each side has only three current games, Sri Lanka did win once, older Sri Lankan results are stale, and short 3x3 games have high shooting variance.

Borges N. vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Country

China

Tournament

Chengdu

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 08:00 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 80%. Borges took a set in all eight completed best-of-three hard-court matches among his latest results, beating Rublev, Cerundolo F., Kokkinakis and Etcheverry. Ugo Carabelli lost 0-2 to Kecmanovic and Norrie in recent hard-court matches. Main risk: Borges lost his latest best-of-five hard-court match 0-3 to Tien, and Ugo Carabelli's recent hard-court sample is small. Best-of-five and incomplete matches are excluded from the set-rate count.

Faria J. vs Atmane T.

Country

China

Tournament

Hangzhou

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 08:40 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 71%. Faria won five of seven completed best-of-three hard-court matches among his latest ten results, including Shelton, Brooksby, Walton and Wu. That current opposition supports winning at least one set. Main risk: Atmane has wins over Khachanov and Draper and the winner model slightly favors him 52-48. Their only H2H is old, and best-of-five matches are excluded from the count.

Marozsan F. vs Bolt A.

Country

China

Tournament

Hangzhou

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 09:55 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 76%. Marozsan took a set in all six completed best-of-three hard-court matches among his latest results, beating Damm, Kecmanovic and Mochizuki. Bolt lost three of his latest six hard-court matches 0-2. Main risk: Bolt won both qualifying matches this week and is match-sharp. Marozsan lost his latest best-of-five match 0-3 to Zheng; that result is considered as risk but excluded from the BO3 count.

Wang Xin. vs Garland J.

Country

Singapore

Tournament

Singapore

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 10:50 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 72%. Wang took a set in seven of her latest nine completed hard-court matches, including two wins over Vekic and a win over Arango. Her ranking of 40 versus 168 and stronger opponent history support at least one set. Main risk: Garland won six of eight completed matches in her latest sample and came through qualifying; incomplete entries are excluded, and their only H2H is from 2024.

Kecmanovic M. vs Basilashvili N.

Country

China

Tournament

Chengdu

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 11:55 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 73%. Kecmanovic took a set in five of six completed best-of-three hard-court matches among his latest results, with wins over Shimabukuro, Ugo Carabelli and Zheng and three-set losses to Cobolli and Rinderknech. Main risk: Basilashvili won both qualifying matches 2-0 and is match-sharp. The 2022 clay H2H has little relevance, and best-of-five results are excluded from the count.

Grasshoppers (SUI) vs Aarau (SUI)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 12:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Aarau's latest eight completed games all had at least three goals, including 2-2 against Kriens and 3-2 against Rapperswil-Jona. Grasshoppers conceded five against both Luzern and Sion and drew 2-2 with Zurich; seven of their last ten games cleared this line. The 78% totals model is discounted for friendly uncertainty. Main risk: Grasshoppers also recorded 1-0 and 2-0 wins recently, one May H2H finished 0-0, and neither starting lineup is confirmed.

Kucmova A. / Laboutkova A. vs Morderger T. / Morderger Y.

Country

Italy

Tournament

Tolentino

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 12:00 GMT+3

Surface

Clay

Estimated probability: 75%. Kucmova/Laboutkova won nine of their last ten completed clay matches as a pair, including wins over Strakhova/Tikhonova and Ibragimova/Zaytseva. They took a set in both recent H2Hs, winning the September 15 meeting 2-1. Main risk: The Mordergers won six of nine completed recent matches and won the July H2H. Doubles variance and the model-only winner estimate of 55% temper this separate set-market estimate.

Grasshoppers (SUI) vs Aarau (SUI)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 12:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Model over 2.5 at 78%; Grasshoppers 7/10 and Aarau 9/10 of last ten went over, 5 of last 8 H2H over. Main risk: Club friendly with rotation risk; model quality only medium.

Monnet C. vs Gasanova A.

Country

Turkey

Tournament

Ankara

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 12:05 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 75%. Gasanova took a set in eight of her last ten completed hard-court matches and won seven, including straight-set wins over Tikhonova, Ito and Jorge F. Monnet lost three of her latest six hard-court matches 0-2. Main risk: Monnet just beat Crawley 2-0, has a similar ranking and can raise her level; Gasanova recently lost 0-2 to Jorge M. and Johnson, with no H2H available.

Kostovic T. vs Bertea E. R.

Country

Turkey

Tournament

Ankara

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 12:05 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 70%. Model 71% (high quality); Kostovic ranked 159 v 282, 7-3 last ten and 6-4 on hard v Bertea 4-6 on hard; won the only H2H. Main risk: Kostovic lost 2 of last 10 to lower-ranked players; Bertea won her opener here.

Podrez V. vs Pohankova M.

Country

Portugal

Tournament

Porto

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:05 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 74%. Pohankova took a set in six of her seven recent hard-court matches and won five, including straight-set wins over both Jorge sisters, Collins K. and Kraus. Her sole recent hard-court set failure was against Volynets. Main risk: Podrez is ranked higher and took a set in eight of her last ten hard-court matches; Pohankova has a relatively small sample and no H2H evidence.

Gunma vs Altiri Chiba

Country

Japan

League

B.League Premier

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:05 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 80%; Gunma 7-3 last ten incl. two early-season wins, Altiri Chiba 3-7; Gunma won both H2H (84-59, 88-79). Main risk: Early-season game with thin recent sample; no market price to check.

Japan W vs Thailand W

Country

Asia

League

Asian Games Women - Play Offs

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:20 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Japan won their three Asian Games matches by 22, 65 and 77 points, including 89-67 against the Philippines. Thailand lost 52-61 to Indonesia and 46-111 to China. Japan also have recent games against substantially stronger international opposition. Main risk: Thailand has only two current results, Japan lost to Hungary, Spain and Germany earlier this month, and team availability or rotation changes are unverified.

Japan W vs Thailand W

Country

Asia

League

Asian Games Women - Play Offs

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:20 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 88%. Model 89%; Japan W beat Philippines 89-67 and Hong Kong 114-37 this week, Thailand W lost 46-111 to China; H2H won by 50+. Main risk: Japan W lost 5 of last 10, though all to European sides.

Prozorova T. vs Eala A.

Country

Singapore

Tournament

Singapore

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:45 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 76%. Rank 18 vs 180, Eala is 6-3 on hard in her last 9 with wins over Oliynykova and Stoiana in straight sets; model 80% high quality and market implies 81%. Main risk: Prozorova won a three-setter yesterday and Eala's last match was a three-set loss to Jovic.

Prozorova T. vs Eala A.

Country

Singapore

Tournament

Singapore

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:45 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 79%. Eala took a set in eight of nine completed matches in her latest hard-court sample, with wins over Pegula, Osaka, Parks and Oliynykova. She is ranked 18 against 180 and her opposition has been substantially stronger. Main risk: Prozorova just beat Costoulas 2-1 and is match-sharp, while Eala has not played since September 6. The incomplete Ruse match is excluded and no H2H is available.

Harris L. vs Kovacevic A.

Country

China

Tournament

Chengdu

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 13:50 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 74%. Harris took a set in seven of eight completed best-of-three matches among his latest ten results, including straight-set wins over Galarneau and Miyoshi this week and a win over Llamas Ruiz. Main risk: Kovacevic is ranked higher and recently beat Tsitsipas and Khachanov. Best-of-five results are excluded from the set-rate count, and there is no H2H sample.

Shevchenko A. vs Hurkacz H.

Country

China

Tournament

Chengdu

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 14:05 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 81%. Hurkacz took a set in all eight completed best-of-three matches among his latest ten hard-court results, beating Baez, Safiullin and Tabilo. He won all four listed H2Hs, while Shevchenko recently lost 0-2 to Van De Zandschulp and O'Connell. Main risk: Hurkacz has not played since September 2 and Shevchenko can compete on serve. H2Hs are older and best-of-five results are excluded from the set-rate count.

Bains N. vs Brantmeier R.

Country

Portugal

Tournament

Porto

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 14:55 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 73%. Brantmeier took a set in eight of her last ten completed hard-court matches and won six, including three successive 2-0 wins over Andreeva E., Johnson and Gimbrere. Main risk: Bains has two completed straight-set wins this week and Brantmeier recently lost 0-2 to Collins; Bains's 0-0 entry is excluded and there is no H2H sample.

Butvilas E. vs Mayot H.

Country

France

Tournament

St Tropez

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 16:00 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 74%. Mayot took a set in eight of nine completed hard-court matches in his latest sample and won seven, including wins over Schoolkate, Chidekh and Tabur. The missing-score Cassone entry is excluded. Main risk: Butvilas just beat Dimitrov 2-0 and is ranked higher. Their only completed H2H was on clay, and Mayot's recent workload adds uncertainty.

Forejtek J. vs Chazal M.

Country

Bulgaria

Tournament

Plovdiv 4

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 16:30 GMT+3

Surface

Clay

Estimated probability: 71%. Chazal took a set in nine of his last ten completed matches, with the lone failure on hard court; his clay results include wins over Schwaerzler and De Schepper and a three-set loss to Barrena. Main risk: Forejtek took a set in eight of nine completed recent clay matches and the winner model is 50-50. Much of Chazal's winning run was at lower levels; the incomplete old H2H is excluded.

Steiner V. vs Swan K.

Country

Portugal

Tournament

Porto

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 17:00 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 77%. Model 79% (high quality); Swan ranked 208 v 399 and 8-1 on hard in last ten and won her match this week 2-0. Main risk: No H2H; Steiner won 6 of last 10 and both matches this week.

Sakkari M. vs Hibino N.

Country

Singapore

Tournament

Singapore

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 17:10 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 72%. Sakkari leads the H2H 2-0 (both hard, straight sets), is ranked 33 vs 190 and won 2-0 yesterday; market implies 78%. Main risk: Model quality is medium and Hibino arrives 7-3 with three wins this week in qualifying.

Sakkari M. vs Hibino N.

Country

Singapore

Tournament

Singapore

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 17:10 GMT+3

Surface

Hard

Estimated probability: 77%. Sakkari took a set in eight of her last ten completed hard-court matches, beating Korneeva and Rakhimova and taking Swiatek to three sets. Her ranking 33 against 190 and both prior 2-0 H2H wins support the set market. Main risk: Hibino has won her latest three and is acclimatized through qualifying. The H2Hs are old, and Sakkari has recent straight-set losses to Gauff and Krejcikova.

Clarke J. vs La Vela G.

Country

Italy

Tournament

Genova 2

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 17:55 GMT+3

Surface

Clay

Estimated probability: 80%. Clarke took a set in all ten of his latest completed matches and won seven, with clay wins over Gill, Ajdukovic and Martinez and competitive losses to Moro Canas and Varillas. Main risk: La Vela just beat Oradini 2-0 and won six of his latest ten; Clarke has accumulated substantial recent court time, and there is no H2H sample.

Clarke J. vs La Vela G.

Country

Italy

Tournament

Genova 2

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 17:55 GMT+3

Surface

Clay

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 73%, market ~79%; Clarke ranked 247 v 553 and 7-3 on clay in last ten, 7 wins in last 10 overall. Main risk: Model quality medium and three of Clarke's recent wins went to a decider.

Al Qadisiya (KUW) vs Al-Fahaheel (KUW)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 18:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 63% win + 20% draw; Al Qadisiya won 7 of last 8 H2H incl. both 2026 meetings, Al-Fahaheel 1W-1D-8L last ten. Main risk: Friendly with medium model quality and possible experimental line-ups.

De Stefano S. vs Selekhmeteva O.

Country

Italy

Tournament

Tolentino

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 18:50 GMT+3

Surface

Clay

Estimated probability: 78%. De Stefano won nine of her last ten completed clay matches, including the latest six, beating Barthel, Samson, Tubello, Palicova and Rus. She has repeatedly won sets against comparable or stronger opponents. Main risk: Selekhmeteva is ranked 101 against 193 and won her opening round. De Stefano's recent workload and the absence of H2H evidence keep this estimate conservative.

Libya vs Botswana

Country

Africa

League

Africa Cup of Nations

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Model 65% win + 21% draw; Libya lost only 1 of last 10 (3W 6D), Botswana 1W-1D-8L and conceded 13 in 6 away games. Main risk: Libya draw-heavy and low scoring; H2H is tight (2W 1D 1L, all by one goal).

Mauritania vs Central Africa

Country

Africa

League

Africa Cup of Nations

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 61% win + 22% draw; Central Africa 1W-2D-7L and conceded 13 in last 5 away; Mauritania won 3 of last 4 H2H. Main risk: Mauritania form modest (2W 4D 4L) and lost 1-2 away to Central Africa in June 2025.

D.R. Congo vs Equatorial Guinea

Country

Africa

League

Africa Cup of Nations

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Model 50% win + 27% draw; D.R. Congo 3 clean sheets in last 5 at home, Equatorial Guinea 2W-2D-6L. Main risk: D.R. Congo form is mixed (4W 2D 4L) and Equatorial Guinea won the 2012 meeting.

Siegen (GER) vs B. Monchengladbach (GER)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Siegen's latest five completed games all cleared this line, including 3-3 against Bonner and 2-2 against Paderborn II. All ten of B. Monchengladbach's listed games had at least three goals; their latest four included 3-4 against Mainz, 0-5 at Freiburg and 3-4 against Elversberg. The 82% totals model is heavily discounted for this friendly. Main risk: unconfirmed rotation and the difference in opponent strength can change both scoring rates; Siegen recently drew 0-0 with B. Monchengladbach II, and there is no H2H sample for these first teams.

Siegen (GER) vs B. Monchengladbach (GER)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Model over 2.5 at 82% (xG 1.95 v 2.35); Gladbach games over 2.5 in 10 of last 10, Siegen 7 of 10. Main risk: Friendly with heavy rotation; model quality medium and no H2H sample.

Alba Berlin vs Frankfurt

Country

Germany

League

BBL

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Model 85%; Alba 10-0 in last 10 H2H (avg margin ~18), Frankfurt 3-7 last ten. Main risk: Alba lost 4 of last 10 and early-season rotation adds variance.

Falcon W vs Sisu W

Country

Denmark

League

Kvindebasketligaen Women

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Model 73%; Falcon W won 8 of last 10 H2H and opened with a win, Sisu W lost 42-78 last time out. Main risk: Sisu W won the January meeting and Falcon W lost 3 of 4 in April.

Bakken Bears vs Horsens

Country

Denmark

League

Basketligaen

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Model 86%; Bakken 7-3 last ten and won last 3 H2H by 10, 39 and 43. Main risk: Horsens beat Bakken twice this spring and Bakken lost in Europe last week.

Oberhausen (GER) vs Schalke (GER)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Model over 2.5 at 73%; Oberhausen 9/10 and Schalke 7/10 recent games over 2.5, 6 of last 8 H2H had 3+ goals. Main risk: Friendly; Schalke home games were lower scoring and a controlled 2-0 is plausible.

Team FOG Naestved vs Holbaek-Stenhus

Country

Denmark

League

Basketligaen

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. Model 75%; Naestved 10-0 in last 10 H2H with mostly 20+ margins, Holbaek-Stenhus 3-7 incl. 16-pt loss last time. Main risk: Naestved's recent form is only 5-5 and this is their season opener.

Vechta vs Bamberg

Country

Germany

League

BBL

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Model 84%; Vechta 4-0 in September and 7-3 last ten, Bamberg lost to Bayern by 36 and 31; Vechta won 3 of last 4 home H2H. Main risk: Bamberg won 2 of the last 3 H2H overall.

Caniato C. A. vs Gentzsch T.

Country

Italy

Tournament

Genova 2

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:05 GMT+3

Surface

Clay

Estimated probability: 74%. Caniato took a set in nine of his last ten completed clay matches and won eight, including his latest six; recent wins over Moro Canas, Barrena and Brunold support this narrower set market. Main risk: Gentzsch is ranked 162 versus 386 and the match-winner model favors him 58-42. Gentzsch has clay wins over Kym and Piros, so Caniato's winning streak does not establish an outright edge.

Baskonia vs Olympiacos

Country

Europe

League

Euroleague

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Olympiacos won five September games against Fenerbahce, Maccabi and Crvena Zvezda, then had a four-point loss to Real Madrid. Baskonia lost three of four, conceded at least 96 in each, and lost to Real by 41. Main risk: Olympiacos play away, four of those wins were by five points or fewer, the model estimates only 63%, and early-season rotations are uncertain.

Norway vs Denmark

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Nine of Norway's last ten and eight of Denmark's last ten completed matches produced at least two goals. Norway's latest six all produced at least three, including 2-1 wins over Brazil and Ivory Coast and a 1-2 defeat against England; Denmark's latest result was 2-1 against Ukraine. Main risk: Denmark drew 0-0 away to D.R. Congo, and neither side has a September result in the supplied sample; unconfirmed squad changes limit confidence.

Caen vs Rouen

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. Caen's latest five matches all finished with no more than two goals, while Rouen have conceded only twice in seven league games. Five of Caen's seven and six of Rouen's seven league games stayed below four goals. Their two latest meetings both finished 1-1. Main risk: Rouen recently won 4-0 at Thionville, and Caen had a 4-3 defeat there; an early defensive error could open the match.

Netherlands vs Germany

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Both teams scored in eight of the Netherlands' last ten and seven of Germany's last ten completed matches. The latest five games for each side all had goals at both ends, including Netherlands against Morocco, Sweden and Japan, and Germany against Paraguay, Ecuador and Ivory Coast. The BTTS model gives 74%. Main risk: their latest H2H ended 1-0, the Netherlands recently failed to score against Algeria, and the latest listed national-team games are from June, leaving squad changes uncertain.

Portugal vs Wales

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Model 63% win + 19% draw; Portugal lost 1 of last 10 (6W 3D) and scored 21 in 7 home games, Wales 3W-3D-4L. Main risk: Portugal drew 3 of last 10 and Wales scored in 5 of 6 home fixtures, so a set-piece upset remains possible.

Liechtenstein vs Lithuania

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Model 64% win + 19% draw; Liechtenstein 1W-9L, scored 0 in last 3 home games; Lithuania 4W 1D 1L in H2H. Main risk: Lithuania own form weak (1W 3D 6L) and won only once in last 10.

Netherlands vs Germany

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Model BTTS 74% (xG 1.63 v 1.93); 6 of last 8 H2H had both teams score, Netherlands BTTS in 6 of 8 home games. Main risk: Germany kept 2 clean sheets in last 6 home games and the last H2H ended 1-0.

Caen vs Rouen

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Model 53% win + 23% draw; Rouen top and unbeaten (5W 2D, 13:2 goals), last 5 H2H without a Rouen loss since 2004. Main risk: Market prices Rouen-or-draw nearer 65%; Caen strong at home (16:5 in last 7).

Ivory Coast vs Ghana

Country

Africa

League

Africa Cup of Nations

Match time

Thu, Sep 24, 22:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 60% win + 23% draw; Ivory Coast 7W in last 10 incl. wins over France and Scotland, Ghana 1W-2D-7L. Main risk: Ghana won 3 of last 8 H2H and this is a derby.

Cameroon vs Comoros