Borges N. vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Borges took a set in all eight completed best-of-three hard-court matches among his latest results, beating Rublev, Cerundolo F., Kokkinakis and Etcheverry. Ugo Carabelli lost 0-2 to Kecmanovic and Norrie in recent hard-court matches. Main risk: Borges lost his latest best-of-five hard-court match 0-3 to Tien, and Ugo Carabelli's recent hard-court sample is small. Best-of-five and incomplete matches are excluded from the set-rate count.