Portugal vs Wales

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Portugal favourites at 63% (Wales 18%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 1.98 to 0.92 and 6 wins in Portugal's last 10 matches to 3 for Wales. It put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 53%. Portugal won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 6 Jul 2016, when Portugal won 2-0.