Shevchenko A. vs Hurkacz H.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Hurkacz took a set in all eight completed best-of-three matches among his latest ten hard-court results, beating Baez, Safiullin and Tabilo. He won all four listed H2Hs, while Shevchenko recently lost 0-2 to Van De Zandschulp and O'Connell. Main risk: Hurkacz has not played since September 2 and Shevchenko can compete on serve. H2Hs are older and best-of-five results are excluded from the set-rate count.