Japan W vs Thailand W

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Japan won their three Asian Games matches by 22, 65 and 77 points, including 89-67 against the Philippines. Thailand lost 52-61 to Indonesia and 46-111 to China. Japan also have recent games against substantially stronger international opposition. Main risk: Thailand has only two current results, Japan lost to Hungary, Spain and Germany earlier this month, and team availability or rotation changes are unverified.