Faria J. vs Atmane T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Faria won five of seven completed best-of-three hard-court matches among his latest ten results, including Shelton, Brooksby, Walton and Wu. That current opposition supports winning at least one set. Main risk: Atmane has wins over Khachanov and Draper and the winner model slightly favors him 52-48. Their only H2H is old, and best-of-five matches are excluded from the count.