Daily picks

Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 01:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. 3rd-placed Novorizontino are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and unbeaten in 5 H2H vs Sao Bernardo; market implies about 83% for 1X at 1.55 home. Main risk: Sao Bernardo won 3 of their last 4 and drew 1-1 in the last meeting.

Vila Nova FC vs Londrina

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Leaders Vila Nova have won 4 of their last 5 at home; Londrina are 18th and 2-2-6 in their last 10. Model 88%, market about 83% for 1X. Main risk: Londrina won 6-0 last week and H2H is even (4-2-4).

Cavalry vs Supra du Quebec

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 04:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 86%. CPL leaders Cavalry (15-5-2) are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and unbeaten in 3 meetings with Supra this season; Supra are 2-3-5. Model 93%. Main risk: Supra drew 1-1 with Cavalry in August and no bookmaker price is available.

Steaua Bucuresti (ROU) vs Stefanesti (ROU)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 11:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. All ten of Steaua's latest completed matches and seven of Stefanesti's ten produced at least three goals. Steaua's recent results include 2-1 against Gloria Bistrita, 0-3 at Bihor and 2-2 with Cetatea Suceava; Stefanesti lost 1-2 to Timisoara and 0-4 at Bihor. Their June meeting finished 2-1. Main risk: Stefanesti's latest result was 0-1, and friendly rotation is unconfirmed.

S. Kostroma vs Ural

Country

Russia

League

FNL

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 14:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Eight of Kostroma's last ten and nine of Ural's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Kostroma have kept five consecutive clean sheets; Ural have conceded just five in eleven league games. Both listed H2Hs finished 1-1. Main risk: Kostroma recently had 3-1 and 2-2 games, and Ural drew 2-2 at Arsenal Tula.

Ekenas vs SJK Akatemia

Country

Finland

League

Ykkosliiga

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 15:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 61% win + 22% draw; Ekenas last 10 3W-3D-4L vs SJK Akatemia 1W-3D-6L; table 7th vs 10th; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. Market double chance ~80%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Jippo vs PK-35

Country

Finland

League

Ykkosliiga

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Seven of Jippo's last ten and eight of PK-35's last ten completed matches stayed below four goals. All ten listed H2Hs also did so, including July's 1-1 and May's 0-1. Jippo and PK-35 have conceded 21 and 18 goals respectively in 24 league games. Main risk: PK-35 recently won 4-1 at KaPa and lost 1-4 to Haka, so a one-sided high score remains possible.

Ulyanovsk vs Leningradets

Country

Russia

League

FNL

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 59% win + 21% draw; Ulyanovsk last 10 3W-3D-4L vs Leningradets 2W-5D-3L; table 14th vs 15th; H2H last 4: 2W-2D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Plymouth vs Burton

Country

England

League

League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 83%. All ten of Plymouth's latest completed matches and nine of Burton's ten produced at least two goals. Plymouth's latest four results were 5-1, 4-2, 3-0 and 3-2; Burton recently drew 2-2 with Mansfield and Cambridge and lost 0-3 at Oxford. The two latest H2Hs were 3-0 and 4-0 Plymouth wins. Main risk: both sides can tighten defensively, and Burton's August 1 game with Derby finished 1-0.

Boston Utd vs AFC Fylde

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Both teams scored in seven of Boston's last ten completed games and eight of Fylde's nine league games. Boston's latest three league results were 3-1, 1-1 and 1-3; Fylde have scored in all nine league games, including away wins of 2-1 at Harrogate and 4-1 at Yeovil. Main risk: Boston have also won 1-0 and 2-0, and Fylde kept a clean sheet against Forest Green.

Wycombe vs Reading

Country

England

League

League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Nine of each team's last ten completed matches produced at least two goals. Wycombe recently drew 3-3 with MK Dons and won 3-2 at Leyton Orient; Reading beat Blackpool 3-1 and Mansfield 5-0. Their August meeting finished 1-1. Main risk: Wycombe's latest game ended 1-0 and Reading recently drew 0-0 at AFC Wimbledon.

Southend vs Barrow

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Southend have won six of nine league games and three of their four home league games. They most recently won 6-1 at Gateshead and 3-1 against Tamworth. Barrow have no wins in their five away league games, while Southend have scored 23 league goals. Main risk: Barrow drew three of those away games and just beat Aldershot 1-0, making a draw a meaningful threat.

Solihull Moors vs Boreham Wood

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Boreham Wood lead the league unbeaten with seven wins from nine and most recently beat Harrogate 4-1 and Scunthorpe 2-1. Solihull have lost seven of nine, conceded 23 and just lost 1-4 at Yeovil. Main risk: Solihull won this H2H 4-1 in April, and Boreham Wood recently drew at Eastleigh; those warnings reduce the 85% winner model estimate.

Aldershot vs Tamworth

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Seven of Aldershot's last ten completed matches and all ten of Tamworth's produced at least two goals. Tamworth have conceded 23 in nine league games and their latest three results were 2-1, 1-3 and 1-3; Aldershot recently drew 1-1 with Yeovil and won 2-1 at Solihull. Main risk: Aldershot's latest game ended 0-1 and they also recently won 1-0 against Halifax.

Harrogate vs Eastleigh

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. All ten of Harrogate's last ten completed games produced at least two goals; nine had at least three. Eastleigh's latest two away games were 1-2 defeats at Sutton and Altrincham, while Harrogate's latest five home league games all cleared this line. Main risk: Eastleigh have also played several 1-0 games, including their latest win over Carlisle.

Sutton vs Forest Green

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. All ten of Sutton's last ten completed games and six of Forest Green's ten stayed below four goals. Sutton have scored and conceded ten in nine league games; Forest Green's latest away games finished 1-1 at Carlisle, 1-0 at Hornchurch and 0-2 at Fylde. Main risk: Forest Green's latest home results included 1-3 and 4-0, and they beat Sutton 4-0 last season.

Shrewsbury vs Colchester

Country

England

League

League Two

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Eight of Shrewsbury's last ten and seven of Colchester's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Shrewsbury have scored five in seven league matches; Colchester's last two league games were 1-1 draws. The two latest H2Hs both finished 2-0 to Colchester. Main risk: Colchester recently lost 1-3 at Peterborough and Swindon, while Shrewsbury have also suffered four-goal defeats.

Swindon vs Accrington

Country

England

League

League Two

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 67%. Model 68% (xG 1.85-1.29); over 2.5 in 7/10 of Swindon's and 7/10 of Accrington's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Plymouth vs Burton

Country

England

League

League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Model 68% win + 16% draw; Plymouth last 10 6W-1D-3L vs Burton 3W-4D-3L; table 3rd vs 12th; H2H last 5: 3W-2D-0L. Market double chance ~81%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Stockport County vs Peterborough

Country

England

League

League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Model 64% win + 17% draw; Stockport County last 10 5W-2D-3L vs Peterborough 3W-3D-4L; table 9th vs 23rd; H2H last 5: 2W-1D-2L. Market double chance ~86%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Fleetwood vs Rochdale

Country

England

League

League Two

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 66% win + 21% draw; Fleetwood last 10 4W-4D-2L vs Rochdale 2W-3D-5L; table 11th vs 17th; H2H last 5: 2W-2D-1L. Market double chance ~76%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

Boston Utd vs AFC Fylde

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Model 63% win + 18% draw; AFC Fylde last 10 5W-2D-3L vs Boston Utd 3W-2D-5L; table 4th vs 15th; H2H last 5: 3W-0D-2L. Market double chance ~67%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

Cambridge Utd vs AFC Wimbledon

Country

England

League

League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 58% win + 21% draw; Cambridge Utd last 10 5W-3D-2L vs AFC Wimbledon 3W-4D-3L; table 5th vs 7th; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. Market double chance ~79%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Southend vs Barrow

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 83%. Model 76% win + 14% draw; Southend last 10 7W-2D-1L vs Barrow 3W-3D-4L; table 2nd vs 17th; H2H last 2: 2W-0D-0L. Market double chance ~81%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

Newport vs Grimsby

Country

England

League

League Two

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. Model 62% win + 19% draw; Grimsby last 10 4W-4D-2L vs Newport 2W-4D-4L; table 3rd vs 19th; H2H last 5: 3W-2D-0L. Market double chance ~77%. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Harrogate vs Eastleigh

Country

England

League

National League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. Model 54% win + 21% draw; Harrogate last 10 6W-1D-3L vs Eastleigh 4W-2D-4L; table 5th vs 12th; H2H last 5: 3W-0D-2L. Market double chance ~81%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Granada CF vs Andorra

Country

Spain

League

LaLiga2

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:15 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Model 76% win + 16% draw; Granada CF last 10 5W-2D-3L vs Andorra 2W-2D-6L; table 14th vs 20th; H2H last 4: 1W-2D-1L. Market double chance ~70%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

Heracles vs Vitesse

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Six of Heracles' seven league games and five of Vitesse's seven produced at least three goals. Heracles have scored 24 and conceded ten in those seven; Vitesse recently won 3-1 against Jong PSV and 4-1 at Den Bosch. Main risk: Heracles' latest game and Vitesse's latest away game were both 0-1 defeats, while several older H2Hs were low-scoring.

Heracles vs Vitesse

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 17:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Model 68% (xG 2.32-1.49); over 2.5 in 8/10 of Heracles's and 6/10 of Vitesse's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Diegem vs Francs Borains

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Nine of Diegem's last ten and seven of Francs Borains' last ten completed matches produced at least three goals. Diegem's latest home games finished 2-2 and 5-2; Francs Borains most recently won 3-2 over Anderlecht U23 and 3-0 over Lokeren. Main risk: cup opposition levels differ, several Diegem results are from spring, and Francs Borains recently had 1-0 and 0-1 games.

Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 60% win + 22% draw; Faroe Islands last 10 7W-0D-3L vs Kazakhstan 3W-3D-4L; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Oldham vs Salford

Country

England

League

League Two

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Nine of Oldham's last ten and seven of Salford's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Both sides have scored eight and conceded nine in seven league matches. Oldham's latest game ended 1-0, while Salford recently won 1-0 against Swindon and Port Vale. Main risk: Salford's recent 3-3 draw at Rotherham shows this is not a consistent low-total pattern.

Celta Vigo B vs Sabadell

Country

Spain

League

LaLiga2

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Model 54% win + 23% draw; Sabadell last 10 5W-4D-1L vs Celta Vigo B 5W-2D-3L; table 7th vs 15th; H2H last 2: 1W-0D-1L. Market double chance ~70%. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Tenerife vs Cadiz CF

Country

Spain

League

LaLiga2

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 19:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Model 70% win + 17% draw; Tenerife last 10 5W-3D-2L vs Cadiz CF 1W-4D-5L; table 11th vs 19th; H2H last 5: 2W-3D-0L. Market double chance ~82%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Rijeka (CRO) vs Union Berlin (GER)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 20:15 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Union Berlin's last ten completed matches all produced at least three goals, including September defeats of 0-7 at Bayern, 1-3 to Schalke and 0-4 at Leverkusen. Rijeka just won 3-0 against Hajduk and 6-0 at Vrbovec. Main risk: Rijeka also recently drew 0-0 with Gorica and 1-1 with Lokomotiva, and friendly rotation is unconfirmed.

Charlotte Independ. vs Fort Wayne

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Six of Charlotte Independ.'s last ten and eight of Fort Wayne's last ten matches cleared this line. Charlotte's latest five home games produced totals of 9, 5, 5, 4 and 6 goals; Fort Wayne's latest two away wins were 3-1 at Greenville and 4-1 at Portland. Their May meeting finished 2-2. Main risk: Charlotte recently drew 1-1 at Boise and lost 0-2 at Union Omaha, so the high home scoring rate may not persist.

FC Volendam vs Venlo

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Eight of each team's last ten completed games produced at least three goals. Volendam have scored 17 and conceded 14 in seven league games; Venlo have scored 19 and conceded 11. Venlo's latest two games were 3-1 wins, and Volendam recently lost 3-5 at Emmen. Main risk: Volendam's latest home game ended 2-0, and both sides have also produced low-scoring results.

NAC Breda vs Eindhoven FC

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Eight of NAC Breda's last ten and seven of Eindhoven's last ten matches cleared this line. NAC's latest five league games all had at least three goals; Eindhoven's last two results were 3-1 and 2-1 wins. Main risk: Eindhoven's recent away games include 0-0 at Jong Utrecht and 1-0 at Jong AZ, and the July H2H finished 0-2; the 71% totals model is discounted.

Sporting Lokeren vs Houtvenne

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Seven of each team's last ten completed matches cleared this line. Houtvenne's four new-season results were 3-0, 5-0, 4-3 and 3-1 wins; Lokeren recently won 6-2 at Anderlecht U23 and lost 2-4 to Genk U23. Main risk: the teams face different levels of opposition, cup lineups are unconfirmed, and Lokeren's latest match finished 1-1.

Maastricht vs Helmond

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Eight of Maastricht's last ten and nine of Helmond's last ten matches produced at least two goals. Maastricht's latest two defeats were 1-6 and 0-4; every Helmond league game this season has had at least two goals, including their latest 1-2 loss at Den Bosch. Main risk: the latest H2H finished 0-0, and Maastricht recently beat Volendam only 1-0.

FC Emmen vs Oss

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Eight of Emmen's last ten and nine of Oss' last ten completed games cleared this line. Emmen have scored and conceded 17 in seven league matches; their last six games all had at least three goals. Oss most recently won 3-0 and lost their latest two away games 1-3 at Venlo and 1-2 at Vitesse. Main risk: the previous meeting at Emmen finished 1-1, and both clubs have also had 1-0 games.

Charlotte Independ. vs Fort Wayne

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 61% win + 17% draw; Charlotte Independ. last 10 6W-2D-2L vs Fort Wayne 3W-1D-6L; table 2nd vs 8th; H2H last 1: 0W-1D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

FC Volendam vs Venlo

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 78% (xG 2.02-2.39); over 2.5 in 8/10 of FC Volendam's and 8/10 of Venlo's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

NAC Breda vs Eindhoven FC

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Model 71% (xG 2.04-1.6); over 2.5 in 8/10 of NAC Breda's and 7/10 of Eindhoven FC's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Roda vs Waalwijk

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Model 51% win + 22% draw; Waalwijk last 10 4W-4D-2L vs Roda 4W-3D-3L; table 4th vs 8th; H2H last 5: 2W-2D-1L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

FC Emmen vs Oss

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 71% (xG 2.78-1.32); over 2.5 in 8/10 of FC Emmen's and 9/10 of Oss's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Orleans vs Cannes

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Six of Orleans' seven league matches and all seven of Cannes' league matches stayed below four goals. Cannes have conceded only three league goals and recently drew 0-0 with Amiens and 1-1 with Bastia; Orleans have scored six in seven. Main risk: Orleans recently lost 0-4 to Versailles, while Cannes' July friendlies were much more open.

Fleury-Merogis vs Aubagne

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Eight of Fleury-Merogis' last ten and nine of Aubagne's last ten matches stayed below four goals. Aubagne have scored just three in seven league games and recently lost 0-1 at Rouen and drew 0-0 at Paris 13 Atl.; Fleury most recently drew 1-1 with Thionville. Main risk: Fleury's recent 6-1 win over Villefranche shows that a one-sided scoring burst remains possible.

Bourg en Bresse vs Concarneau

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Nine of Bourg en Bresse's last ten and eight of Concarneau's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Bourg en Bresse have scored only four in seven league games, including five consecutive scoreless league defeats before their latest 1-1 draw. Concarneau's latest two wins were 2-0 over Caen and 2-1 at Aubagne. Main risk: Concarneau recently drew 2-2 with Thionville, and Bourg's opening league match finished 3-2.

Czech Republic vs Croatia

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Nine of each team's latest ten completed internationals produced at least two goals. Czech Republic's June results included 0-3 against Mexico, 1-1 with South Africa and 1-2 against South Korea; Croatia's latest game was a 1-2 loss to Portugal. Main risk: the latest H2H finished 0-0, and the June-July form sample leaves current squad changes uncertain.

Quevilly Rouen vs Amiens

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 85%. All ten of Quevilly Rouen's last ten and nine of Amiens' last ten matches stayed below four goals. Every league game for both sides this season has done so. Amiens have conceded only two in seven league matches and kept four consecutive league clean sheets; Quevilly's latest result was 0-0 at Versailles. Main risk: Amiens recently scored three against Bastia and Versailles, and older H2Hs include high-scoring games.

Paris 13 Atl. vs Bastia

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. All seven of Paris 13 Atl.'s league matches and six of Bastia's seven stayed below four goals. Paris have scored five league goals; Bastia's three away league games all finished 1-0. The latest results were 1-1 draws for both sides. Main risk: Bastia also lost 2-3 to Versailles, and both clubs had higher-scoring preseason games.

Orleans vs Cannes

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Sat, Sep 26, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 63% win + 20% draw; Cannes last 10 3W-6D-1L vs Orleans 4W-1D-5L; table 7th vs 14th; H2H last 2: 1W-1D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Villefranche vs Versailles