Thionville vs La Roche

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made La Roche favourites at 55% (Thionville 24%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.85 to 1.12 and 6 wins in La Roche's last 10 matches to 4 for Thionville. It put over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. La Roche won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• La Roche are unbeaten in 10 matches.