Daily picks

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 00:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 55% win + 20% draw; Sarasota Paradise last 10 4W-4D-2L vs Portland Hearts of Pine 2W-4D-4L; table 11th vs 12th; H2H last 3: 2W-1D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC

Country

USA

League

USL Championship

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 64% win + 19% draw; Indy Eleven last 10 3W-3D-4L vs Miami FC 1W-3D-6L; table 7th vs 9th; H2H last 5: 4W-0D-1L. Market double chance ~76%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Greenville vs Union Omaha

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 86%. Model 79% win + 13% draw; Union Omaha last 10 7W-2D-1L vs Greenville 1W-3D-6L; table 1st vs 15th; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Vancouver FC vs Forge

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Model 56% win + 21% draw; Forge last 10 4W-3D-3L vs Vancouver FC 3W-3D-4L; table 2nd vs 4th; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. Market double chance ~74%. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Detroit vs Colorado Springs

Country

USA

League

USL Championship

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Model 51% win + 25% draw; Detroit last 10 4W-4D-2L vs Colorado Springs 4W-2D-4L; table 4th vs 3rd; H2H last 4: 3W-0D-1L. Market double chance ~72%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

FC Naples vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 58% win + 21% draw; Chattanooga Red Wolves last 10 4W-3D-3L vs FC Naples 3W-2D-5L; table 6th vs 14th; H2H last 4: 2W-2D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City

Country

USA

League

MLS

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 77% (xG 2.42-1.57); over 2.5 in 7/10 of Philadelphia Union's and 8/10 of Orlando City's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

Country

USA

League

MLS

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 86%. Model 78% win + 14% draw; Houston Dynamo last 10 5W-3D-2L vs Sporting Kansas City 2W-1D-7L; table 2nd vs 15th; H2H last 5: 2W-2D-1L. Market double chance ~85%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

San Antonio vs Tampa Bay

Country

USA

League

USL Championship

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Model 56% win + 24% draw; Tampa Bay last 10 6W-2D-2L vs San Antonio 3W-4D-3L; table 1st vs 7th; H2H last 4: 0W-3D-1L. Market double chance ~70%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

Corpus Christi FC vs Boise

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Model 58% win + 21% draw; Boise last 10 5W-4D-1L vs Corpus Christi FC 4W-3D-3L; table 5th vs 9th; H2H last 1: 0W-1D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

Country

USA

League

MLS

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 86%. Model 82% win + 11% draw; Nashville SC last 10 6W-2D-2L vs Toronto FC 3W-4D-3L; table 1st vs 12th; H2H last 5: 4W-0D-1L. Market double chance ~84%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

Monterey Bay vs Lexington

Country

USA

League

USL Championship

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 05:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 71% win + 16% draw; Lexington last 10 5W-1D-4L vs Monterey Bay 0W-3D-7L; table 4th vs 12th; H2H last 4: 2W-1D-1L. Market double chance ~71%. Main risk: model is well above the market, so the edge may be overstated.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

Country

USA

League

MLS

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 05:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 73% (xG 1.81-1.48); BTTS in 7/10 of San Jose Earthquakes's and 9/10 of Portland Timbers's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Ufa vs Torpedo Moscow

Country

Russia

League

FNL

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 12:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Model 52% win + 23% draw; Torpedo Moscow last 10 4W-2D-4L vs Ufa 3W-4D-3L; table 6th vs 8th; H2H last 5: 1W-4D-0L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Ufa vs Torpedo Moscow

Country

Russia

League

FNL

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 12:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. Eight of each team's last ten completed matches stayed below four goals. Ufa's latest three results were 1-2, 2-2 and 0-1; Torpedo's were 1-1, 1-2 and 0-2. Their latest seven H2Hs all stayed below three goals. Main risk: Torpedo recently won 4-1 at Tekstilshtik and 4-0 at Chelyabinsk, and Ufa's 2-2 draw shows the line can be exceeded.

Gangwon vs Incheon

Country

South Korea

League

K League 1

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 13:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 77%. Seven of Gangwon's last ten and nine of Incheon's last ten completed matches stayed below four goals. Gangwon's recent home results include 0-1 against Jeju, 1-1 with Jeonbuk and 0-0 with Pohang; Incheon's latest result was 1-1 against Daejeon. Main risk: Gangwon recently drew 2-2 with Gimcheon and Gwangju, while Incheon had a 3-3 game at Jeju.

Shaanxi Union vs Dalian K'un City

Country

China

League

League One

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 14:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Model 53% win + 22% draw; Shaanxi Union last 10 4W-2D-4L vs Dalian K'un City 3W-4D-3L; table 6th vs 11th; H2H last 5: 2W-2D-1L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

De Graafschap vs Den Bosch

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 15:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Model 72% (xG 1.7-2.49); over 2.5 in 9/10 of De Graafschap's and 6/10 of Den Bosch's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

De Graafschap vs Den Bosch

Country

Netherlands

League

Eerste Divisie

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 15:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Nine of De Graafschap's last ten and six of Den Bosch's last ten completed games cleared this line. De Graafschap have conceded 20 in seven league games, and their last six results all had at least three goals; Den Bosch recently lost 1-4 to Vitesse and beat Eindhoven 5-2. Main risk: the latest H2H finished 1-1, and Den Bosch's recent 0-2 at Volendam stayed below the line.

Lazio (ITA) vs Arezzo (ITA)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 62% win + 18% draw; Lazio (Ita) last 10 8W-1D-1L vs Arezzo (ITA) 3W-1D-6L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Partizan (SRB) vs Rodina Moscow (RUS)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 75% (xG 2.1-1.43); over 2.5 in 9/10 of Partizan (Srb)'s and 8/10 of Rodina Moscow (Rus)'s last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Ludogorets (BUL) vs Ramnicu Valcea (ROU)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 51% win + 23% draw; Ludogorets (Bul) last 10 6W-3D-1L vs Ramnicu Valcea (ROU) 3W-4D-3L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Eight of each team's last ten completed internationals stayed below four goals. Lithuania's latest five games all did so, including a 2-0 win at Liechtenstein this week; Azerbaijan just beat Tajikistan 1-0 and previously beat San Marino 2-1. Main risk: both teams have had high-scoring mismatches, including Azerbaijan's 6-1 win over Saint Lucia, and much of the sample predates September.

Partizan (SRB) vs Rodina Moscow (RUS)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Nine of Partizan's last ten and eight of Rodina's last ten completed matches produced at least three goals. Partizan's latest results were 4-4, 2-3 and 1-2; Rodina recently lost 1-3 to Spartak, 0-3 to Baltika and 1-3 to Dynamo Moscow. Main risk: Rodina's latest match finished 1-1, Partizan recently lost 0-1, and friendly lineups are unconfirmed.

Ludogorets (BUL) vs Ramnicu Valcea (ROU)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 16:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. All ten of Ludogorets' last ten and seven of Ramnicu Valcea's last ten completed games produced at least two goals. Ludogorets' latest two wins were 2-1; Valcea's latest three results were 3-2, 0-4 and 1-2. Main risk: Valcea have also had recent 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0 games, and friendly lineups and cross-league opposition add uncertainty.

Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo

Country

Argentina

League

Torneo Federal A

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 49% win + 27% draw; Circulo Deportivo last 10 3W-3D-4L vs Sol de Mayo 2W-1D-7L; table 9th vs 6th; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Knokke vs Seraing

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Model 55% win + 20% draw; Knokke last 10 6W-0D-4L vs Seraing 2W-2D-6L; H2H last 5: 3W-1D-1L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Merelbeke vs Eupen

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 80% (xG 1.4-2.58); over 2.5 in 8/10 of Merelbeke's and 9/10 of Eupen's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs SKA Khabarovsk

Country

Russia

League

FNL

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 60% win + 20% draw; Shinnik Yaroslavl last 10 3W-5D-2L vs SKA Khabarovsk 2W-2D-6L; table 9th vs 18th; H2H last 5: 2W-1D-2L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Criciuma vs Avai

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 83%. Nine of each team's last ten completed league games stayed below four goals. Criciuma have scored 28 and conceded 27 in 29 league matches and have failed to score in their latest three; Avai's last three results were 1-2, 1-1 and 0-1. Main risk: Criciuma recently lost 0-4 at Atletico GO and Avai lost 1-3 at Novorizontino, so a one-sided high score remains possible.

AEK Larnaca (CYP) vs Nea Salamis (CYP)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. Seven of each team's last ten completed matches produced at least three goals. Nea Salamis' latest seven games all cleared this line, including a 1-4 loss to AEK earlier this month and a 3-0 win over Anorthosis. AEK recently won 3-1 against APOEL and 5-2 against Omonia 29th May. Main risk: AEK have also had three recent 0-1 results, and friendly lineups are unconfirmed.

Knokke vs Seraing

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 83%. All ten of each team's last ten completed games produced at least two goals. Knokke's latest two results were 3-2 against Belisia Bilzen and 1-2 at Cercle Brugge's second team; Seraing recently drew 2-2 at Genk U23 and lost 1-2 to Hasselt. All five listed H2Hs also reached two goals. Main risk: this is a cup match between teams facing different levels of opposition, and several wins in the sample were only 2-0.

Union Rochefortoise vs K. Lierse S.K.

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 81%. All ten of Union Rochefortoise's last ten and nine of Lierse's last ten completed games produced at least two goals. Rochefortoise's latest results include 1-1 with Charleroi B, 1-2 against Onhaye and 4-1 at Tubize-Braine; Lierse most recently lost 1-3 at Beerschot. Main risk: Lierse recently drew 0-0 with RFC Liege, and the cup matchup involves different levels of opposition.

Merelbeke vs Eupen

Country

Belgium

League

Belgian Cup

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Eight of Merelbeke's last ten and nine of Eupen's last ten completed matches cleared this line. Even excluding July's large friendly wins, five of Eupen's six recent league games had at least three goals; Merelbeke recently won 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2. Main risk: the teams face different levels of opposition, and Eupen's recent 1-0 at Club Brugge U23 shows the totals can stay low.

Camacha vs Florgrade

Country

Portugal

League

Taca de Portugal

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Seven of Camacha's last ten and nine of Florgrade's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Florgrade's five new-season results all had at most two goals, including a 0-1 loss at Camacha earlier this month. Main risk: Camacha recently drew 2-2 with Guarda and Machico, while Florgrade's older results include a 1-4 defeat.

Mallorca vs Almeria

Country

Spain

League

LaLiga2

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:15 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 54% win + 24% draw; Mallorca last 10 7W-2D-1L vs Almeria 6W-0D-4L; table 4th vs 5th; H2H last 5: 2W-2D-1L. Market double chance ~74%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Mallorca vs Almeria

Country

Spain

League

LaLiga2

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 17:15 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Nine of Mallorca's last ten and eight of Almeria's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Mallorca have conceded only twice in six league games and kept four consecutive league clean sheets; Almeria's latest two wins were both 2-0. Main risk: Almeria recently beat Cadiz 3-2, and the latest H2H ended 2-2.

Denmark vs Wales

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 83%. Model 64% win + 18% draw; Denmark last 10 5W-3D-2L vs Wales 2W-3D-5L; table 3rd vs 4th; H2H last 5: 4W-0D-1L. Market double chance ~86%. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Serbia vs Netherlands

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 85%. Model 70% win + 16% draw; Netherlands last 10 5W-4D-1L vs Serbia 3W-0D-7L; table 3rd vs 4th. Market double chance ~86%. Main risk: away double chance relies on the underdog-at-home variance.

Denmark vs Wales

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Nine of Denmark's last ten and seven of Wales' last ten completed internationals produced at least two goals. Denmark just lost 2-3 to Norway and previously beat Ukraine 2-1; Wales' June and March results included a 1-2 defeat and three 1-1 draws. Main risk: Wales' latest game ended 0-1 against Portugal, and Denmark had a 0-0 draw with D.R. Congo.

Serbia vs Netherlands

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Nine of each team's last ten completed internationals produced at least two goals. Serbia just lost 1-2 to Greece, following 0-3 and 1-5 defeats in May and June; the Netherlands just drew 1-1 with Germany and scored three against Tunisia and five against Sweden in June. Main risk: Serbia have also lost 0-1 to Albania and the Netherlands 0-1 to Algeria; current squads may differ from summer.

Drita (KOS) vs Bashkimi (MKD)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Model 63% win + 18% draw; Drita (Kos) last 10 5W-4D-1L vs Bashkimi (MKD) 2W-1D-7L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Maghreb Fez vs Renaissance Zemamra

Country

Morocco

League

Botola Pro

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. Model 56% win + 26% draw; Maghreb Fez last 10 5W-4D-1L vs Renaissance Zemamra 2W-4D-4L; table 8th vs 12th; H2H last 5: 2W-1D-2L. No bookmaker price available. Main risk: football variance; a single away goal can decide it.

Inter Toronto vs Pacific FC

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Model 75% (xG 2.27-1.47); BTTS in 9/10 of Inter Toronto's and 7/10 of Pacific FC's last matches. Main risk: goal markets are high-variance and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Inter Toronto vs Pacific FC

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Both teams scored in nine of Inter Toronto's last ten and seven of Pacific's last ten completed games. Toronto have conceded in all ten and Pacific in nine; their two recent meetings finished 3-3 and 1-1. Toronto's latest result was another 3-3 draw at Vancouver FC. Main risk: Pacific recently failed to score against Cavalry, Ottawa and Forge, so their attack remains the weaker part of the selection.

Defensores Belgrano VR vs Alvarado

Country

Argentina

League

Torneo Federal A

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Model 84% under (xG 0.6-0.97); over 2.5 landed in only 2/10 of Defensores Belgrano VR's and 2/10 of Alvarado's last matches. Main risk: one early goal changes the game state, and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Chivilcoy

Country

Argentina

League

Torneo Federal A

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 84%. Model 89% under (xG 0.92-0.42); over 2.5 landed in only 0/10 of Olimpo Bahia Blanca's and 1/10 of Chivilcoy's last matches. Main risk: one early goal changes the game state, and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Germany vs Greece

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Model 72%, market ~71% at 1.4; Germany last 10 7W-2D-1L vs Greece 2W-3D-5L; H2H last 5: 4W-1D-0L. Main risk: Greece can sit deep and a draw is priced near 18%; the model edge over the market is only ~4 points.

Germany vs Greece

Country

Europe

League

UEFA Nations League

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. All ten of Germany's last ten completed internationals produced at least two goals. Their latest two results were 1-1 draws against the Netherlands and Paraguay; Greece just won 2-1 at Serbia and drew 2-2 with Sweden in June. Main risk: Greece have also played recent 0-0 and 0-1 games, so their lower scoring rate reduces the estimate.

CRB vs Cuiaba

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 22:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Nine of CRB's last ten and eight of Cuiaba's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. CRB's latest results were 0-1 at Ponte Preta, 2-1 against Sport and 0-3 at Operario; Cuiaba have conceded only 22 in 29 league games. The latest three H2Hs finished 2-0, 1-0 and 1-1. Main risk: Cuiaba recently won 3-1 at Ceara and 4-0 against Sorriso, while CRB beat America MG 3-1.

Oviedo vs Gijon

Country

Spain

League

LaLiga2

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 22:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Five of each team's six league matches stayed below four goals; both have scored five and conceded four. Oviedo's three home league games finished 0-0, 0-1 and 0-0. Nine of the last ten H2Hs also stayed below four goals. Main risk: both latest games reached four goals, with Oviedo losing 1-3 at Sabadell and Gijon winning 3-1 at Andorra.

Kawkab Marrakech vs Hassania Agadir

Country

Morocco

League

Botola Pro

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 23:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Model 72% under (xG 1.06-0.77); over 2.5 landed in only 1/10 of Kawkab Marrakech's and 2/10 of Hassania Agadir's last matches. Main risk: one early goal changes the game state, and no bookmaker price is available to cross-check.

Uberlandia (BRA) vs Mirassol (BRA)

Country

World

League

Club Friendly

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 23:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Nine of Uberlandia's last ten and seven of Mirassol's last ten completed games stayed below four goals. Uberlandia's latest eight results all had at most two goals; Mirassol recently beat Botafogo 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Palmeiras and Santos. Main risk: these clubs face different levels of opposition, friendly lineups are unconfirmed, and Mirassol recently had 2-2 and 1-5 results.

New York Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers

Country

USA

League

USL League One

Match time

Sun, Sep 27, 23:00 GMT+3