Serbia vs Netherlands

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Netherlands favourites at 70% (Serbia 14%, draw 16%). That rests on expected goals of 2.34 to 0.93 and 5 wins in Netherlands's last 10 matches to 3 for Serbia. It put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 58%. Netherlands won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Netherlands are unbeaten in 6 matches.
• Serbia have lost 3 matches in a row.