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Football · Bundesliga · Germany

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

Sunday, 25 October 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

Match preview

The model makes Bayer Leverkusen favourites at 76% (Hoffenheim 11%, draw 13%). That rests on expected goals of 2.92 to 1.06, Bayer Leverkusen sitting 4th in the table to Hoffenheim's 13th, 8 wins in Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 matches to 4 for Hoffenheim and 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 3. Bookmakers give Bayer Leverkusen about 41% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 64%.

Key facts

  • Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 matches in a row.
  • Bayer Leverkusen kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals came in 9 of Hoffenheim's last 10 matches and 7 of Bayer Leverkusen's.
  • Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
  • Hoffenheim have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
Germany•Bundesliga
Hoffenheim(3)
Rank 13 · 6 pts
W2d
W6d
L9d
L14d
L34d
L37d
W42d
L49d
L56d
W63d
4W · 0D · 6L
vs
Bayer Leverkusen(6)
Rank 4 · 13 pts
W2d
W6d
W9d
W14d
W34d
W38d
D42d
W49d
L56d
W63d
8W · 1D · 1L
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
H2H: 3-1-6
Last 10 matches
1010
20/1928/9
2.002.80
1.900.90
9/1010/10
8/1010/10
8/104/10
6/103/10
2/106/10
1/100/10
10/1010/10
9/107/10
7/104/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Hoffenheim at homeBayer Leverkusen away
56
2/54/6
0/51/6
3/51/6
2.203.00
2.001.33
5/56/6
5/56/6
1/53/6
4/53/6
3/53/6
1/53/6
0/50/6
5/55/6
4/53/6
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Hoffenheim: 1.06
Expected Goals
Bayer Leverkusen: 2.92
Hoffenheim
11%
Draw
13%
Bayer Leverkusen
76%
Over 2.5: 79%
BTTS: 64%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 4.9%
1 — Hoffenheim
2.70
Implied 35%
Edge -24.3%
X
4.10▼
Implied 23%
Edge -10.2%
2 — Bayer Leverkusen
2.30▲
Implied 41%
Edge +34.6%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Hoffenheim · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Hoffenheim#13 vs Lyon#1
3-0W
18 Oct2026
b. Monchengladbach#18 vs Hoffenheim#13
1-2W
15 Oct2026
Hoffenheim#13 vs Besiktas#6
2-3L
10 Oct2026
Hoffenheim#13 vs Hamburger sv#9
2-3L
20 Sept2026
Paderborn#16 vs Hoffenheim#13
3-1L
17 Sept2026
Ofi Crete#5 vs Hoffenheim#13
2-0L
12 Sept2026
Hoffenheim#13 vs Stuttgart#14
2-1W
05 Sept2026
Hoffenheim#13 vs Dortmund#2
2-3L
29 Aug2026
fc Koln#12 vs Hoffenheim#13
3-2L
22 Aug2026
Aue vs Hoffenheim#13
0-4W
Team 2 Form
Bayer Leverkusen · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Ofi Crete#5 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-2W
18 Oct2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Freiburg#3
2-1W
15 Oct2026
Lech Poznan#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-4W
10 Oct2026
Mainz#5 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
3-4W
20 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs rb Leipzig#7
2-0W
16 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Celje#29
2-0W
12 Sept2026
Augsburg#10 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
2-2D
05 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Union Berlin#17
4-0W
29 Aug2026
Elversberg#6 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
3-2L
22 Aug2026
Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-4W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
17 Jan2026
Hoffenheim#13 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-0•
23 Aug2025
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Hoffenheim#13
1-2•
02 Feb2025
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Hoffenheim#13
3-1•
14 Sept2024
Hoffenheim#13 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-4•
30 Mar2024
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Hoffenheim#13
2-1•
04 Nov2023
Hoffenheim#13 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
2-3•
11 Feb2023
Hoffenheim#13 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-3•
20 Aug2022
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Hoffenheim#13
0-3•
07 May2022
Hoffenheim#13 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
2-4•
15 Dec2021
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Hoffenheim#13
2-2•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now

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