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Football · DFB Pokal · Germany

Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg

Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

Match preview

The model makes Bayer Leverkusen favourites at 56% (Nurnberg 25%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.08 to 1.31, 8 wins in Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 matches to 6 for Nurnberg and 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Bayer Leverkusen about 82% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 56%.

Key facts

  • Nurnberg are unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 matches in a row.
  • Bayer Leverkusen kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 matches and 7 of Nurnberg's.
  • Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
Germany•DFB Pokal
Bayer Leverkusen(6)
W2d
W6d
W9d
W14d
W34d
W38d
D42d
W49d
L56d
W63d
8W · 1D · 1L
vs
Nurnberg(2)
D8d
D14d
W22d
W35d
W43d
D49d
W56d
D63d
W70d
W76d
6W · 4D · 0L
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 22:45
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
H2H: 6-2-2
Last 10 matches
1010
28/925/13
2.802.50
0.901.30
10/1010/10
10/107/10
4/108/10
3/103/10
6/102/10
0/100/10
10/109/10
7/107/10
4/108/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Bayer Leverkusen at homeNurnberg away
45
4/42/5
0/43/5
0/40/5
2.501.80
0.251.20
4/45/5
4/42/5
1/41/5
1/44/5
0/42/5
3/41/5
0/40/5
2/42/5
1/44/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Bayer Leverkusen: 2.08
Expected Goals
Nurnberg: 1.31
Bayer Leverkusen
56%
Draw
19%
Nurnberg
25%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 56%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 6.0%
1 — Bayer Leverkusen
1.15
Implied 82%
Edge -26.0%
X
8.40▲
Implied 11%
Edge +7.8%
2 — Nurnberg
14.00▲
Implied 7%
Edge +18.3%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Bayer Leverkusen · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Ofi Crete#5 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-2W
18 Oct2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Freiburg#3
2-1W
15 Oct2026
Lech Poznan#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-4W
10 Oct2026
Mainz#5 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
3-4W
20 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs rb Leipzig#7
2-0W
16 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Celje#29
2-0W
12 Sept2026
Augsburg#10 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
2-2D
05 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Union Berlin#17
4-0W
29 Aug2026
Elversberg#6 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
3-2L
22 Aug2026
Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-4W
Team 2 Form
Nurnberg · # = league position now
16 Oct2026
Cottbus#8 vs Nurnberg#2
1-1D
10 Oct2026
Nurnberg#2 vs Wolfsburg#3
4-4D
02 Oct2026
Nurnberg#2 vs Ingolstadt
3-1W
19 Sept2026
Karlsruher sc#14 vs Nurnberg#2
0-1W
11 Sept2026
Nurnberg#2 vs Hannover#15
2-1W
05 Sept2026
Holstein Kiel#18 vs Nurnberg#2
2-2D
29 Aug2026
Nurnberg#2 vs Arminia Bielefeld#9
4-1W
22 Aug2026
Viktoria Koln vs Nurnberg#2
1-1D
15 Aug2026
Greuther Furth#10 vs Nurnberg#2
2-4W
09 Aug2026
Nurnberg#2 vs sg Dynamo Dresden#11
3-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
20 Apr2019
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Nurnberg#2
2-0•
03 Dec2018
Nurnberg#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-1•
20 Apr2014
Nurnberg#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-4•
30 Nov2013
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Nurnberg#2
3-0•
04 May2013
Nurnberg#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
0-2•
01 Dec2012
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Nurnberg#2
1-0•
05 May2012
Nurnberg#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-4•
17 Dec2011
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Nurnberg#2
0-3•
05 Feb2011
Nurnberg#2 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
1-0•
19 Sept2010
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Nurnberg#2
0-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now

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