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Football · Bundesliga · Germany

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

Sunday, 25 October 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

Match preview

The model makes Bayern Munich favourites at 49% (Freiburg 33%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.40 to 1.95 and 8 wins from the last 10 meetings to 1. Bookmakers give Bayern Munich about 70% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams scoring at 73%.

Key facts

  • Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals came in 9 of Freiburg's last 10 matches and 9 of Bayern Munich's.
  • Freiburg have scored in all of their last 6 home games.
  • Freiburg average 3.67 goals a game at home.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Freiburg's last 10 matches and 7 of Bayern Munich's.
Germany•Bundesliga
Freiburg(1)
Rank 3 · 13 pts
L2d
L6d
W9d
W13d
W21d
D35d
W42d
W49d
W55d
W58d
7W · 1D · 2L
vs
Bayern Munich(8)
Rank 1 · 14 pts
D3d
W7d
D11d
D14d
W36d
W41d
W44d
D49d
W52d
W57d
6W · 4D · 0L
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 19:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
H2H: 1-1-8
Last 10 matches
1010
26/1436/11
2.603.60
1.401.10
9/109/10
7/109/10
8/107/10
5/103/10
2/103/10
1/101/10
9/109/10
9/109/10
7/107/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Freiburg at homeBayern Munich away
65
6/62/5
0/63/5
0/60/5
3.672.20
1.171.40
6/64/5
6/64/5
5/62/5
5/64/5
2/62/5
1/61/5
0/61/5
6/64/5
5/64/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Freiburg: 1.95
Expected Goals
Bayern Munich: 2.4
Freiburg
33%
Draw
18%
Bayern Munich
49%
Over 2.5: 84%
BTTS: 73%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.9%
1 — Freiburg
6.60▼
Implied 14%
Edge +18.7%
X
6.00
Implied 16%
Edge +2.3%
2 — Bayern Munich
1.35
Implied 70%
Edge -21.0%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Freiburg · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Monaco#5 vs Freiburg#3
3-0L
18 Oct2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs Freiburg#3
2-1L
15 Oct2026
Freiburg#3 vs Jablonec#7
3-2W
11 Oct2026
Freiburg#3 vs Schalke#15
2-1W
03 Oct2026
Freiburg#3 vs Luzern#8
4-2W
19 Sept2026
Eintracht Frankfurt#11 vs Freiburg#3
2-2D
12 Sept2026
Freiburg#3 vs b. Monchengladbach#18
5-0W
05 Sept2026
Paderborn#16 vs Freiburg#3
0-1W
30 Aug2026
Freiburg#3 vs Werder Bremen#8
4-1W
27 Aug2026
Freiburg#3 vs Motherwell#10
4-1W
Team 2 Form
Bayern Munich · # = league position now
21 Oct2026
Bayern Munich#1 vs Arsenal#2
2-2D
17 Oct2026
Bayern Munich#1 vs rb Leipzig#7
6-1W
13 Oct2026
Viking#2 vs Bayern Munich#1
3-3D
10 Oct2026
Augsburg#10 vs Bayern Munich#1
2-2D
18 Sept2026
Bayern Munich#1 vs Union Berlin#17
7-0W
13 Sept2026
Elversberg#6 vs Bayern Munich#1
1-2W
10 Sept2026
Bayern Munich#1 vs Bodo/glimt#1
5-0W
05 Sept2026
Schalke#15 vs Bayern Munich#1
0-0D
02 Sept2026
Vfl Osnabruck#12 vs Bayern Munich#1
1-4W
28 Aug2026
Bayern Munich#1 vs Stuttgart#13
5-1W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
04 Apr2026
Freiburg#3 vs Bayern Munich#1
2-3•
22 Nov2025
Bayern Munich#1 vs Freiburg#3
6-2•
25 Jan2025
Freiburg#3 vs Bayern Munich#1
1-2•
01 Sept2024
Bayern Munich#1 vs Freiburg#3
2-0•
01 Mar2024
Freiburg#3 vs Bayern Munich#1
2-2•
08 Oct2023
Bayern Munich#1 vs Freiburg#3
3-0•
08 Apr2023
Freiburg#3 vs Bayern Munich#1
0-1•
04 Apr2023
Bayern Munich#1 vs Freiburg#3
1-2•
16 Oct2022
Bayern Munich#1 vs Freiburg#3
5-0•
02 Apr2022
Freiburg#3 vs Bayern Munich#1
1-4•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now

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