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Match Intelligence

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Football · Champions League · Europe

Atl. Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Tuesday, 03 November 2026

Match preview

The model makes Bayern Munich favourites at 45% (Atl. Madrid 35%, draw 20%). Bookmakers give Bayern Munich about 47% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view. It puts over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 59%.

Key facts

Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 10 matches.
Atl. Madrid are unbeaten in 7 matches.
Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of Atl. Madrid's last 10 matches and 9 of Bayern Munich's.
Atl. Madrid are 16th in Champions League on 4 points from 3 games; Bayern Munich are 14th on 5.
They last met on 1 Dec 2020, when it finished 1-1.

Europe•Champions League

Atl. Madrid(2)

Rank 16 · 4 pts

D4d

W7d

W11d

W14d

W34d

W38d

W41d

L45d

L49d

W56d

7W · 1D · 2L

Bayern Munich(4)

Rank 14 · 5 pts

D3d

W7d

D11d

D14d

W36d

W41d

W44d

D49d

W52d

W57d

6W · 4D · 0L

Tuesday, 03 November 2026 at 23:00

H2H: 2-2-4

Last 10 matches

1010

19/936/11

1.903.60

0.901.10

9/109/10

6/109/10

6/107/10

2/103/10

4/103/10

1/101/10

9/109/10

7/109/10

5/107/10

Home & away form · from last 10 matches

Atl. Madrid at homeBayern Munich away

3/32/5

0/33/5

0/30/5

2.672.20

0.331.40

3/34/5

1/32/5

1/34/5

0/32/5

2/31/5

0/31/5

2/34/5

1/34/5

Model Prediction

Expected Goals

Atl. Madrid: 1.66

Expected Goals

Bayern Munich: 1.93

Atl. Madrid

35%

Draw

20%

Bayern Munich

45%

Over 2.5: 66%

BTTS: 59%

Quality: high

Market Odds (1X2)

Vig 4.5%

1 — Atl. Madrid

3.40▲

Implied 28%

Edge +6.9%

3.80▲

Implied 25%

Edge -5.2%

2 — Bayern Munich

2.05▼

Implied 47%

Edge -1.7%

Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.

Team 1 Form

Atl. Madrid · # = league position now

20 Oct2026

Stuttgart#6 vs Atl. Madrid#16

1-1D

17 Oct2026

Espanyol#16 vs Atl. Madrid#16

0-1W

13 Oct2026

Atl. Madrid#16 vs Manchester Utd#20

2-0W

10 Oct2026

Alaves#7 vs Atl. Madrid#16

1-2W

20 Sept2026

Atl. Madrid#16 vs Real Madrid#4

2-1W

16 Sept2026

Atl. Madrid#16 vs Osasuna#10

4-0W

13 Sept2026

Real Sociedad#5 vs Atl. Madrid#16

0-3W

09 Sept2026

Liverpool#3 vs Atl. Madrid#16

2-1L

05 Sept2026

Ath Bilbao#13 vs Atl. Madrid#16

3-0L

29 Aug2026

Sevilla#6 vs Atl. Madrid#16

1-3W

Team 2 Form

Bayern Munich · # = league position now

21 Oct2026

Bayern Munich#14 vs Arsenal#7

2-2D

17 Oct2026

Bayern Munich#14 vs rb Leipzig#30

6-1W

13 Oct2026

Viking#33 vs Bayern Munich#14

3-3D

10 Oct2026

Augsburg#10 vs Bayern Munich#14

2-2D

18 Sept2026

Bayern Munich#14 vs Union Berlin#17

7-0W

13 Sept2026

Elversberg#6 vs Bayern Munich#14

1-2W

10 Sept2026

Bayern Munich#14 vs Bodo/glimt#28

5-0W

05 Sept2026

Schalke#15 vs Bayern Munich#14

0-0D

02 Sept2026

Vfl Osnabruck#12 vs Bayern Munich#14

1-4W

28 Aug2026

Bayern Munich#14 vs Stuttgart#6

5-1W

Head-to-Head

Last 10 · # = league position now

01 Dec2020

Atl. Madrid#16 vs Bayern Munich#14

1-1•

21 Oct2020