Football · Premier League · England
Chelsea vs Manchester Utd
Saturday, 31 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Chelsea favourites at 72% (Manchester Utd 14%, draw 14%). That rests on expected goals of 2.82 to 1.18, Chelsea sitting 4th in the table to Manchester Utd's 13th and 7 wins in Chelsea's last 10 matches to 2 for Manchester Utd. Manchester Utd lead the head-to-head 4-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. Bookmakers give Chelsea about 52% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 67%.
Key facts
- Manchester Utd have gone 7 matches without a win.
- Chelsea have scored in all of their last 6 home games.
- Chelsea average 3.67 goals a game at home.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Chelsea's last 10 matches and 7 of Manchester Utd's.
- They last met on 18 Apr 2026, when Manchester Utd won 1-0.
England•Premier League
vs
Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 15:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 2-4-4
Last 10 matches
1010
28/1717/17
2.801.70
1.701.70
9/108/10
8/104/10
8/109/10
6/105/10
2/101/10
1/102/10
10/109/10
8/105/10
7/107/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Chelsea at homeManchester Utd away
65
5/60/5
1/63/5
0/62/5
3.671.00
1.672.00
6/64/5
6/61/5
4/60/5
5/65/5
3/63/5
1/60/5
0/61/5
5/62/5
5/64/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Chelsea: 2.82
Expected Goals
Manchester Utd: 1.18
Chelsea
72%
Draw
14%
Manchester Utd
14%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 67%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 4.8%
1 — Chelsea
1.85▼
Implied 52%
Edge +20.4%
X
4.10▲
Implied 23%
Edge -9.3%
2 — Manchester Utd
3.80▲
Implied 25%
Edge -11.1%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Chelsea · # = league position now
17 Oct2026
Everton#9 vs Chelsea#4
0-2W
10 Oct2026
Chelsea#4 vs Bournemouth#15
5-1W
18 Sept2026
Brentford#7 vs Chelsea#4
3-0L
12 Sept2026
Chelsea#4 vs Hull#11
2-2D
09 Sept2026
Chelsea#4 vs Leeds#8
6-3W
06 Sept2026
Arsenal#2 vs Chelsea#4
2-1L
30 Aug2026
Chelsea#4 vs Brighton#3
4-3W
27 Aug2026
Chelsea#4 vs Luton#2
2-0W
24 Aug2026
Fulham#19 vs Chelsea#4
2-3W
15 Aug2026
Chelsea#4 vs Real Sociedad#5
3-1W
Team 2 Form
Manchester Utd · # = league position now
21 Oct2026
Como#5 vs Manchester Utd#13
4-1L
18 Oct2026
Leeds#8 vs Manchester Utd#13
1-1D
13 Oct2026
Atl. Madrid#2 vs Manchester Utd#13
2-0L
10 Oct2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Tottenham#16
1-1D
20 Sept2026
Fulham#19 vs Manchester Utd#13
1-1D
16 Sept2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Brighton#3
2-3L
13 Sept2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Manchester City#1
0-1L
10 Sept2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Sabah fc#1
4-0W
06 Sept2026
Everton#9 vs Manchester Utd#13
2-2D
30 Aug2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Ipswich#10
5-2W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
18 Apr2026
Chelsea#4 vs Manchester Utd#13
0-1•
20 Sept2025
Manchester Utd#13 vs Chelsea#4
2-1•
16 May2025
Chelsea#4 vs Manchester Utd#13
1-0•
03 Nov2024
Manchester Utd#13 vs Chelsea#4
1-1•
04 Apr2024
Chelsea#4 vs Manchester Utd#13
4-3•
06 Dec2023
Manchester Utd#13 vs Chelsea#4
2-1•
25 May2023
Manchester Utd#13 vs Chelsea#4
4-1•
22 Oct2022
Chelsea#4 vs Manchester Utd#13
1-1•
28 Apr2022
Manchester Utd#13 vs Chelsea#4
1-1•
28 Nov2021
Chelsea#4 vs Manchester Utd#13
1-1•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Chelsea
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