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Football · EFL Cup · England

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

Match preview

The model makes Aston Villa favourites at 47% (Bournemouth 33%, draw 20%). That rests on 8 wins in Aston Villa's last 10 matches to 5 for Bournemouth. Bookmakers give Aston Villa about 31% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 65%.

Key facts

  • Aston Villa have won 4 matches in a row.
  • Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of Bournemouth's last 10 matches and 9 of Aston Villa's.
  • Aston Villa scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
  • Bournemouth have won 3 matches in a row.
  • They last met on 7 Feb 2026, when it finished 1-1.
England•EFL Cup
Bournemouth(3)
W2d
W6d
W9d
L14d
L34d
W37d
D42d
W46d
D49d
D56d
5W · 3D · 2L
vs
Aston Villa(4)
W0d
W3d
W7d
W10d
D14d
W22d
W35d
W38d
L42d
W46d
8W · 1D · 1L
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 22:45
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
H2H: 3-3-4
Last 10 matches
1010
20/1227/12
2.002.70
1.201.20
9/1010/10
7/108/10
6/108/10
3/104/10
4/102/10
1/100/10
9/109/10
7/109/10
5/108/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Bournemouth at homeAston Villa away
75
4/75/5
2/70/5
1/70/5
2.142.60
0.571.20
6/75/5
5/74/5
3/74/5
3/74/5
1/72/5
4/71/5
1/70/5
4/74/5
2/74/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Bournemouth: 1.53
Expected Goals
Aston Villa: 1.87
Bournemouth
33%
Draw
20%
Aston Villa
47%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 65%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 6.6%
1 — Bournemouth
2.20▼
Implied 43%
Edge -9.7%
X
3.60
Implied 26%
Edge -6.1%
2 — Aston Villa
3.00▲
Implied 31%
Edge +15.7%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Bournemouth · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Bournemouth#15 vs ac Milan#4
3-0W
18 Oct2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Sunderland#20
2-0W
15 Oct2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Sturm Graz#4
3-0W
10 Oct2026
Chelsea#4 vs Bournemouth#15
5-1L
20 Sept2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Liverpool#5
0-1L
17 Sept2026
Real Sociedad#5 vs Bournemouth#15
1-2W
12 Sept2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Brentford#7
2-2D
08 Sept2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Lincoln#18
4-0W
05 Sept2026
Newcastle#12 vs Bournemouth#15
2-2D
29 Aug2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Everton#9
1-1D
Team 2 Form
Aston Villa · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
Aston Villa#6 vs Manchester City#1
2-1W
21 Oct2026
Aston Villa#6 vs Viking#2
3-1W
17 Oct2026
Newcastle#12 vs Aston Villa#6
0-1W
14 Oct2026
Aston Villa#6 vs Fenerbahce#3
6-0W
10 Oct2026
Aston Villa#6 vs Brentford#7
2-2D
02 Oct2026
Sevilla#6 vs Aston Villa#6
1-3W
19 Sept2026
Tottenham#16 vs Aston Villa#6
2-3W
16 Sept2026
Coventry#18 vs Aston Villa#6
1-3W
12 Sept2026
Aston Villa#6 vs Nottingham#17
1-2L
08 Sept2026
Club Brugge kv#2 vs Aston Villa#6
2-3W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
07 Feb2026
Bournemouth#15 vs Aston Villa#6
1-1•
09 Nov2025
Aston Villa#6 vs Bournemouth#15
4-0•
10 May2025
Bournemouth#15 vs Aston Villa#6
0-1•
26 Oct2024
Aston Villa#6 vs Bournemouth#15
1-1•
21 Apr2024
Aston Villa#6 vs Bournemouth#15
3-1•
03 Dec2023
Bournemouth#15 vs Aston Villa#6
2-2•
18 Mar2023
Aston Villa#6 vs Bournemouth#15
3-0•
06 Aug2022
Bournemouth#15 vs Aston Villa#6
2-0•
01 Feb2020
Bournemouth#15 vs Aston Villa#6
2-1•
17 Aug2019
Aston Villa#6 vs Bournemouth#15
1-2•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now

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