Football · Champions League · Europe
Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Tuesday, 03 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Barcelona favourites at 51% (Aston Villa 32%, draw 17%). That rests on expected goals of 2.69 to 2.16. Bookmakers give Barcelona about 78% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams scoring at 75%.
Key facts
- Aston Villa have won 4 matches in a row.
- Barcelona are 8th in Champions League on 6 points from 3 games; Aston Villa are 2nd on 9.
- Over 2.5 goals came in 10 of Barcelona's last 10 matches and 9 of Aston Villa's.
- Barcelona scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
- Aston Villa scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
Europe•Champions League
vs
Tuesday, 03 November 2026 at 23:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 2-1-1
Last 10 matches
1010
43/1527/12
4.302.70
1.501.20
10/1010/10
10/108/10
8/108/10
5/104/10
2/102/10
0/100/10
10/109/10
10/109/10
8/108/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Barcelona at homeAston Villa away
45
4/45/5
0/40/5
0/40/5
5.002.60
1.251.20
4/45/5
4/44/5
4/44/5
3/44/5
2/42/5
1/41/5
0/40/5
4/44/5
3/44/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Barcelona: 2.69
Expected Goals
Aston Villa: 2.16
Barcelona
51%
Draw
17%
Aston Villa
32%
Over 2.5: 86%
BTTS: 75%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 4.9%
1 — Barcelona
1.22▼
Implied 78%
Edge -27.1%
X
7.20▲
Implied 13%
Edge +3.8%
2 — Aston Villa
11.00▲
Implied 9%
Edge +23.3%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Barcelona · # = league position now
20 Oct2026
Psg#1 vs Barcelona#8
4-2L
17 Oct2026
Betis#5 vs Barcelona#8
2-5W
13 Oct2026
Galatasaray#23 vs Barcelona#8
1-4W
10 Oct2026
Barcelona#8 vs Getafe#15
3-0W
19 Sept2026
Sevilla#6 vs Barcelona#8
1-3W
16 Sept2026
Barcelona#8 vs Racing Santander#17
7-2W
13 Sept2026
Levante#11 vs Barcelona#8
2-4W
09 Sept2026
Barcelona#8 vs Feyenoord#26
5-1W
06 Sept2026
Valencia#19 vs Barcelona#8
0-5W
31 Aug2026
Barcelona#8 vs Rayo Vallecano#14
5-2W
Team 2 Form
Aston Villa · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
Aston Villa#2 vs Manchester City#10
2-1W
21 Oct2026
Aston Villa#2 vs Viking#33
3-1W
17 Oct2026
Newcastle#12 vs Aston Villa#2
0-1W
14 Oct2026
Aston Villa#2 vs Fenerbahce#31
6-0W
10 Oct2026
Aston Villa#2 vs Brentford#7
2-2D
02 Oct2026
Sevilla#6 vs Aston Villa#2
1-3W
19 Sept2026
Tottenham#16 vs Aston Villa#2
2-3W
16 Sept2026
Coventry#18 vs Aston Villa#2
1-3W
12 Sept2026
Aston Villa#2 vs Nottingham#17
1-2L
08 Sept2026
Club Brugge kv#11 vs Aston Villa#2
2-3W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
26 Jan2083
Aston Villa#2 vs Barcelona#8
3-0•
19 Jan2083
Barcelona#8 vs Aston Villa#2
1-0•
15 Mar2078
Barcelona#8 vs Aston Villa#2
2-1•
01 Mar2078
Aston Villa#2 vs Barcelona#8
2-2•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Barcelona
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