Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Excelsior favourites at 56% (Heerenveen 26%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.39 to 1.59 and 5 wins in Excelsior's last 10 matches to 3 for Heerenveen. Heerenveen lead the head-to-head 6-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 65%. Heerenveen won 4-0, against the model's 56% for Excelsior.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 7 Mar 2026, when Heerenveen won 2-1.