Excelsior vs PSV

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Excelsior favourites at 60% (PSV 24%, draw 16%). That rests on expected goals of 2.86 to 1.83 and 9 wins in Excelsior's last 10 matches to 5 for PSV. PSV lead the head-to-head 10-0, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 85% and both teams scoring at 75%. PSV won 2-1, against the model's 60% for Excelsior.

Key facts before the match

• Excelsior have won 7 matches in a row.
• They last met on 10 Jan 2026, when PSV won 5-1.