Football · Champions League · Europe
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid
Wednesday, 04 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Real Madrid favourites at 47% (AEK Athens 34%, draw 19%). That rests on Real Madrid sitting 4th in the table to AEK Athens's 29th and 8 wins in Real Madrid's last 10 matches to 6 for AEK Athens. Bookmakers give Real Madrid about 70% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 67%.
Key facts
- Real Madrid have won 4 matches in a row.
- AEK Athens scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
- They last met on 22 Oct 2002, when it finished 2-2.
- Real Madrid concede 2 goals a game away from home.
Europe•Champions League
vs
Wednesday, 04 November 2026 at 20:45
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 1-2-1
Last 10 matches
1010
25/1227/12
2.502.70
1.201.20
10/109/10
5/107/10
6/108/10
2/103/10
4/102/10
0/101/10
9/108/10
6/108/10
6/107/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Aek Athens at homeReal Madrid away
44
4/42/4
0/40/4
0/42/4
4.252.00
0.252.00
4/43/4
3/42/4
3/42/4
1/44/4
0/43/4
3/40/4
0/41/4
3/43/4
1/43/4
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Aek Athens: 1.85
Expected Goals
Real Madrid: 2.22
Aek Athens
34%
Draw
19%
Real Madrid
47%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 67%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.1%
1 — AEK Athens
7.60▼
Implied 13%
Edge +21.5%
X
5.60▲
Implied 17%
Edge +2.0%
2 — Real Madrid
1.35▲
Implied 70%
Edge -23.5%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Aek Athens · # = league position now
20 Oct2026
Manchester City#10 vs Aek Athens#29
5-1L
14 Oct2026
Shakhtar Donetsk#17 vs Aek Athens#29
3-1L
10 Oct2026
Aek Athens#29 vs Ofi Crete#5
3-0W
20 Sept2026
Volos#10 vs Aek Athens#29
1-2W
17 Sept2026
Aek Athens#29 vs Panserraikos#16
8-1W
13 Sept2026
Asteras Tripolis#4 vs Aek Athens#29
1-1D
08 Sept2026
Aek Athens#29 vs Lask#24
1-0W
05 Sept2026
Aek Athens#29 vs Aris
5-0W
02 Sept2026
Chrisoupolis#15 vs Aek Athens#29
0-2W
30 Aug2026
Kifisia#12 vs Aek Athens#29
1-1D
Team 2 Form
Real Madrid · # = league position now
21 Oct2026
Real Madrid#4 vs rb Leipzig#30
4-1W
18 Oct2026
Real Madrid#4 vs Sevilla#6
4-1W
14 Oct2026
as Roma#15 vs Real Madrid#4
3-4W
10 Oct2026
Real Madrid#4 vs Villarreal#19
1-0W
20 Sept2026
Atl. Madrid#16 vs Real Madrid#4
2-1L
15 Sept2026
Elche#18 vs Real Madrid#4
2-3W
12 Sept2026
Real Madrid#4 vs Rayo Vallecano#14
4-1W
08 Sept2026
Real Madrid#4 vs Inter#21
2-1W
04 Sept2026
Betis#5 vs Real Madrid#4
1-0L
30 Aug2026
Real Madrid#4 vs Malaga#20
4-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
22 Oct2002
Real Madrid#4 vs Aek Athens#29
2-2•
02 Oct2002
Aek Athens#29 vs Real Madrid#4
3-3•
02 Oct2085
Real Madrid#4 vs Aek Athens#29
5-0•
18 Sept2085
Aek Athens#29 vs Real Madrid#4
1-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Aek Athens
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