De Minaur A. vs Rublev A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. De Minaur took sets in seven of eight comparable hard-court best-of-three matches and won six, including current wins over Halys, Navone and Zverev. Rublev lost 0-2 to Medvedev and Borges in his comparable sample. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 21 July to 4 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Rublev also won six of eight comparable matches, just beat Safiullin and Griekspoor in three sets, and won their latest supplied hard-court H2H 2-1 in February 2025. De Minaur lost 0-2 to Fils. Best-of-five and alternative-format meetings are not counted as comparable trials.