Swansea vs Birmingham

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Birmingham favourites at 52% (Swansea 25%, draw 23%). That rests on expected goals of 1.55 to 0.99, 7 wins in Birmingham's last 10 matches to 5 for Swansea and 4 wins from the last 10 meetings to 0. It put over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 59%. Birmingham won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Birmingham are unbeaten in 10 matches.
• They last met on 17 Jan 2026, when it finished 1-1.