Birmingham vs Watford

Match preview

The model makes Birmingham favourites at 82% (Watford 6%, draw 12%). That rests on expected goals of 2.47 to 0.46, Birmingham sitting 1st in the table to Watford's 20th and 7 wins in Birmingham's last 10 matches to 3 for Watford. Watford lead the head-to-head 7-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It puts over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 37%.

Key facts

• Birmingham have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
• Birmingham average 2.8 goals a game at home.
• Watford failed to score in 2 of their last 4 away games.
• Birmingham have won 3 matches in a row.
• They last met on 1 Jan 2026, when Watford won 3-0.