Southampton vs Bolton

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Southampton favourites at 56% (Bolton 25%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.21 to 1.41 and 6 wins in Southampton's last 10 matches to 4 for Bolton. Bolton lead the head-to-head 4-0, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 64%. It ended 0-0, a draw the model had put at 19%.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 24 Aug 2010, when Bolton won 1-0.