Football · Champions League · Europe
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
Wednesday, 04 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Manchester City favourites at 59% (RB Leipzig 23%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.33 to 1.40, Manchester City sitting 10th in the table to RB Leipzig's 30th, 8 wins in Manchester City's last 10 matches to 5 for RB Leipzig and 4 wins from the last 6 meetings to 1. Bookmakers give Manchester City about 61% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view. It puts over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 64%.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals came in 8 of RB Leipzig's last 10 matches and 7 of Manchester City's.
- Manchester City scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
- RB Leipzig have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- RB Leipzig average 3.8 goals a game at home.
- RB Leipzig kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Europe•Champions League
vs
Wednesday, 04 November 2026 at 23:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 1-1-4
Last 10 matches
1010
23/1928/12
2.302.80
1.901.20
9/1010/10
4/107/10
5/105/10
5/104/10
5/105/10
1/100/10
9/108/10
8/107/10
4/105/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
rb Leipzig at homeManchester City away
54
5/53/4
0/50/4
0/51/4
3.801.75
0.000.50
5/54/4
4/52/4
4/51/4
0/51/4
0/51/4
5/53/4
0/50/4
4/52/4
0/51/4
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
rb Leipzig: 1.4
Expected Goals
Manchester City: 2.33
rb Leipzig
23%
Draw
18%
Manchester City
59%
Over 2.5: 75%
BTTS: 64%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.0%
1 — RB Leipzig
5.20▲
Implied 18%
Edge +4.7%
X
4.70▲
Implied 20%
Edge -2.3%
2 — Manchester City
1.55▼
Implied 61%
Edge -2.4%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
rb Leipzig · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
rb Leipzig#30 vs Elversberg#6
4-0W
21 Oct2026
Real Madrid#4 vs rb Leipzig#30
4-1L
17 Oct2026
Bayern Munich#14 vs rb Leipzig#30
6-1L
13 Oct2026
rb Leipzig#30 vs Psv#18
1-0W
10 Oct2026
rb Leipzig#30 vs Eintracht Frankfurt#11
6-0W
20 Sept2026
Bayer Leverkusen#4 vs rb Leipzig#30
2-0L
13 Sept2026
rb Leipzig#30 vs Hamburger sv#9
5-0W
10 Sept2026
Como#9 vs rb Leipzig#30
4-1L
05 Sept2026
Werder Bremen#8 vs rb Leipzig#30
3-1L
29 Aug2026
rb Leipzig#30 vs b. Monchengladbach#18
3-0W
Team 2 Form
Manchester City · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
Aston Villa#2 vs Manchester City#10
2-1L
20 Oct2026
Manchester City#10 vs Aek Athens#29
5-1W
17 Oct2026
Manchester City#10 vs Ipswich
3-2W
14 Oct2026
Manchester City#10 vs Psg#1
2-4L
11 Oct2026
Liverpool#3 vs Manchester City#10
0-3W
20 Sept2026
Manchester City#10 vs Sunderland#20
5-3W
17 Sept2026
Manchester City#10 vs Norwich#21
5-0W
13 Sept2026
Manchester Utd#20 vs Manchester City#10
0-1W
08 Sept2026
fc Porto#34 vs Manchester City#10
0-2W
05 Sept2026
Manchester City#10 vs Coventry#18
1-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
28 Nov2023
Manchester City#10 vs rb Leipzig#30
3-2•
04 Oct2023
rb Leipzig#30 vs Manchester City#10
1-3•
14 Mar2023
Manchester City#10 vs rb Leipzig#30
7-0•
22 Feb2023
rb Leipzig#30 vs Manchester City#10
1-1•
07 Dec2021
rb Leipzig#30 vs Manchester City#10
2-1•
15 Sept2021
Manchester City#10 vs rb Leipzig#30
6-3•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
rb Leipzig
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