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Football · EFL Cup · England

Manchester City vs Brighton

Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

Match preview

The model makes Brighton favourites at 44% (Manchester City 37%, draw 19%). Manchester City lead the head-to-head 5-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. Bookmakers give Brighton about 21% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 66%.

Key facts

  • Brighton are unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • Brighton kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of Manchester City's last 10 matches and 7 of Brighton's.
  • Manchester City scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
  • Manchester City have scored in all of their last 6 home games.
England•EFL Cup
Manchester City(5)
L0d
W4d
W7d
L10d
W13d
W34d
W37d
W41d
W46d
W49d
8W · 0D · 2L
vs
Brighton(2)
D2d
W6d
W9d
W14d
W35d
W38d
W41d
D49d
L55d
W58d
7W · 2D · 1L
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 22:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
H2H: 5-3-2
Last 10 matches
1010
28/1230/7
2.803.00
1.200.70
10/109/10
7/108/10
5/103/10
4/102/10
5/107/10
0/101/10
8/109/10
7/107/10
5/103/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Manchester City at homeBrighton away
65
5/63/5
0/61/5
1/61/5
3.502.60
1.671.20
6/64/5
5/64/5
4/63/5
4/62/5
3/62/5
2/63/5
0/61/5
5/63/5
4/62/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Manchester City: 1.95
Expected Goals
Brighton: 2.14
Manchester City
37%
Draw
19%
Brighton
44%
Over 2.5: 76%
BTTS: 66%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 6.7%
1 — Manchester City
1.62▲
Implied 58%
Edge -20.9%
X
4.40▲
Implied 21%
Edge -2.3%
2 — Brighton
4.50▼
Implied 21%
Edge +23.2%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Manchester City · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
Aston Villa#6 vs Manchester City#1
2-1L
20 Oct2026
Manchester City#1 vs Aek Athens#1
5-1W
17 Oct2026
Manchester City#1 vs Ipswich#10
3-2W
14 Oct2026
Manchester City#1 vs Psg#2
2-4L
11 Oct2026
Liverpool#5 vs Manchester City#1
0-3W
20 Sept2026
Manchester City#1 vs Sunderland#20
5-3W
17 Sept2026
Manchester City#1 vs Norwich#21
5-0W
13 Sept2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Manchester City#1
0-1W
08 Sept2026
fc Porto#1 vs Manchester City#1
0-2W
05 Sept2026
Manchester City#1 vs Coventry#18
1-0W
Team 2 Form
Brighton · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Jablonec#7 vs Brighton#3
0-0D
18 Oct2026
Brighton#3 vs Crystal Palace#14
5-0W
15 Oct2026
Brighton#3 vs Kauno Zalgiris#36
4-0W
10 Oct2026
Sunderland#20 vs Brighton#3
0-2W
19 Sept2026
Brighton#3 vs Arsenal#2
3-0W
16 Sept2026
Manchester Utd#13 vs Brighton#3
2-3W
13 Sept2026
Coventry#18 vs Brighton#3
0-5W
05 Sept2026
Brighton#3 vs Leeds#8
1-1D
30 Aug2026
Chelsea#4 vs Brighton#3
4-3L
27 Aug2026
Brighton#3 vs Tromso#4
4-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
07 Jan2026
Manchester City#1 vs Brighton#3
1-1•
31 Aug2025
Brighton#3 vs Manchester City#1
2-1•
15 Mar2025
Manchester City#1 vs Brighton#3
2-2•
09 Nov2024
Brighton#3 vs Manchester City#1
2-1•
25 Apr2024
Brighton#3 vs Manchester City#1
0-4•
21 Oct2023
Manchester City#1 vs Brighton#3
2-1•
24 May2023
Brighton#3 vs Manchester City#1
1-1•
22 Oct2022
Manchester City#1 vs Brighton#3
3-1•
20 Apr2022
Manchester City#1 vs Brighton#3
3-0•
23 Oct2021
Brighton#3 vs Manchester City#1
1-4•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now

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