Football · Ligue 1 · France
Monaco vs Lille
Sunday, 25 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Monaco favourites at 59% (Lille 21%, draw 20%). That rests on expected goals of 1.85 to 0.98 and 7 wins in Monaco's last 10 matches to 4 for Lille. Lille lead the head-to-head 5-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. Bookmakers give Monaco about 47% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 48%.
Key facts
- Monaco have scored in all of their last 6 home games.
- Monaco average 2.5 goals a game at home.
- Monaco are 5th in Ligue 1 on 14 points from 7 games; Lille are 4th on 14.
- They last met on 10 May 2026, when Lille won 1-0.
France•Ligue 1
vs
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 2-3-5
Last 10 matches
1010
20/814/16
2.001.40
0.801.60
9/109/10
8/105/10
7/107/10
1/105/10
3/103/10
1/101/10
9/108/10
6/106/10
6/106/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Monaco at homeLille away
63
5/61/3
1/60/3
0/62/3
2.500.67
0.671.67
6/62/3
6/60/3
2/60/3
3/62/3
1/62/3
3/61/3
0/61/3
4/62/3
3/61/3
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Monaco: 1.85
Expected Goals
Lille: 0.98
Monaco
59%
Draw
20%
Lille
21%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.6%
1 — Monaco
2.00▼
Implied 47%
Edge +11.6%
X
3.60▼
Implied 26%
Edge -6.3%
2 — Lille
3.60▲
Implied 26%
Edge -5.3%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Monaco · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Monaco#5 vs Freiburg#3
3-0W
18 Oct2026
Lorient#7 vs Monaco#5
1-0L
15 Oct2026
Cska Sofia#2 vs Monaco#5
1-2W
10 Oct2026
Monaco#5 vs Toulouse#12
2-2D
03 Oct2026
Monaco#5 vs Pisa#3
2-0W
18 Sept2026
Monaco#5 vs Lens#9
2-1W
12 Sept2026
Strasbourg#14 vs Monaco#5
1-1D
04 Sept2026
Psg#2 vs Monaco#5
1-2W
30 Aug2026
Monaco#5 vs Marseille#10
2-0W
27 Aug2026
Monaco#5 vs Gornik Zabrze#1
4-1W
Team 2 Form
Lille · # = league position now
21 Oct2026
Lille#4 vs Galatasaray#1
2-4L
17 Oct2026
Lille#4 vs Brest#11
1-1D
13 Oct2026
Arsenal#2 vs Lille#4
3-0L
10 Oct2026
Lille#4 vs le Havre#18
1-0W
02 Oct2026
Lille#4 vs Waregem#8
2-1W
20 Sept2026
Nice#8 vs Lille#4
2-1L
13 Sept2026
Lille#4 vs Troyes#17
2-0W
08 Sept2026
Lille#4 vs Betis#4
2-3L
03 Sept2026
Toulouse#12 vs Lille#4
0-1W
28 Aug2026
Lille#4 vs Psg#2
2-2D
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
10 May2026
Monaco#5 vs Lille#4
0-1•
24 Aug2025
Lille#4 vs Monaco#5
1-0•
22 Feb2025
Lille#4 vs Monaco#5
2-1•
18 Oct2024
Monaco#5 vs Lille#4
0-0•
24 Apr2024
Monaco#5 vs Lille#4
1-0•
29 Oct2023
Lille#4 vs Monaco#5
2-0•
14 May2023
Monaco#5 vs Lille#4
0-0•
23 Oct2022
Lille#4 vs Monaco#5
4-3•
06 May2022
Lille#4 vs Monaco#5
1-2•
19 Nov2021
Monaco#5 vs Lille#4
2-2•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Monaco
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