Football · Ligue 1 · France
Marseille vs Toulouse
Sunday, 01 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Marseille favourites at 44% (Toulouse 35%, draw 21%). That rests on 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 0. Bookmakers give Marseille about 52% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 64%.
Key facts
- Marseille are 10th in Ligue 1 on 9 points from 7 games; Toulouse are 12th on 9.
- They last met on 7 Mar 2026, when Marseille won 1-0.
France•Ligue 1
vs
Sunday, 01 November 2026 at 22:45
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 6-4-0
Last 10 matches
1010
15/1615/19
1.501.50
1.601.90
6/107/10
4/106/10
8/109/10
5/108/10
2/101/10
4/103/10
7/109/10
5/108/10
4/106/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Marseille at homeToulouse away
45
1/41/5
0/43/5
3/41/5
1.751.80
1.501.80
3/44/5
2/44/5
1/41/5
3/44/5
2/44/5
1/41/5
1/41/5
3/45/5
2/43/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Marseille: 1.79
Expected Goals
Toulouse: 1.56
Marseille
44%
Draw
21%
Toulouse
35%
Over 2.5: 69%
BTTS: 64%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 4.9%
1 — Marseille
1.82
Implied 52%
Edge -8.4%
X
4.00
Implied 24%
Edge -2.8%
2 — Toulouse
4.00
Implied 24%
Edge +11.2%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Marseille · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Sturm Graz#4 vs Marseille#10
1-0L
18 Oct2026
Angers#15 vs Marseille#10
2-5W
15 Oct2026
Marseille#10 vs Olympiacos Piraeus#2
0-1L
11 Oct2026
Troyes#17 vs Marseille#10
0-2W
20 Sept2026
Marseille#10 vs Psg#2
1-2L
17 Sept2026
Besiktas#6 vs Marseille#10
4-1L
11 Sept2026
Rennes#6 vs Marseille#10
1-0L
06 Sept2026
Marseille#10 vs Paris fc#3
2-3L
30 Aug2026
Monaco#5 vs Marseille#10
2-0L
21 Aug2026
Marseille#10 vs Strasbourg#14
4-0W
Team 2 Form
Toulouse · # = league position now
16 Oct2026
le Mans#16 vs Toulouse#12
0-3W
10 Oct2026
Monaco#5 vs Toulouse#12
2-2D
03 Oct2026
Toulouse#12 vs Pau fc#5
2-3L
19 Sept2026
Toulouse#12 vs le Havre#18
3-2W
12 Sept2026
Lorient#7 vs Toulouse#12
2-2D
03 Sept2026
Toulouse#12 vs Lille#4
0-1L
29 Aug2026
Brest#11 vs Toulouse#12
2-2D
22 Aug2026
Toulouse#12 vs Lyon#1
0-2L
15 Aug2026
Toulouse#12 vs Hamburger sv#9
1-2L
08 Aug2026
Elche#18 vs Toulouse#12
3-0L
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
07 Mar2026
Toulouse#12 vs Marseille#10
0-1•
04 Mar2026
Marseille#10 vs Toulouse#12
2-2•
29 Nov2025
Marseille#10 vs Toulouse#12
2-2•
06 Apr2025
Marseille#10 vs Toulouse#12
3-2•
31 Aug2024
Toulouse#12 vs Marseille#10
1-3•
21 Apr2024
Toulouse#12 vs Marseille#10
2-2•
17 Sept2023
Marseille#10 vs Toulouse#12
0-0•
19 Feb2023
Toulouse#12 vs Marseille#10
2-3•
29 Dec2022
Marseille#10 vs Toulouse#12
6-1•
08 Feb2020
Marseille#10 vs Toulouse#12
1-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Marseille
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