Leeds vs Newcastle

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Leeds favourites at 48% (Newcastle 30%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.71 to 1.29 and 6 wins in Leeds's last 10 matches to 4 for Newcastle. It put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 58%. Leeds won 4-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Newcastle are unbeaten in 6 matches.
• They last met on 7 Jan 2026, when Newcastle won 4-3.