Newcastle vs Sunderland

Match preview

The model makes Newcastle favourites at 52% (Sunderland 26%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.72 to 1.14 and Newcastle sitting 11th in the table to Sunderland's 20th. Sunderland lead the head-to-head 8-1, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It puts over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 51%.

Key facts

• They last met on 22 Mar 2026, when Sunderland won 2-1.
• Sunderland concede 2.4 goals a game away from home.