Football · Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Thursday, 29 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Atalanta favourites at 49% (Fiorentina 30%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.76 to 1.31, Atalanta sitting 11th in the table to Fiorentina's 18th and 5 wins in Atalanta's last 10 matches to 3 for Fiorentina. Bookmakers give Atalanta about 32% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 63%.
Key facts
- They last met on 22 May 2026, when it finished 1-1.
Italy•Serie A
vs
Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 22:45
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 4-2-4
Last 10 matches
1010
16/1914/14
1.601.40
1.901.40
8/108/10
3/104/10
9/108/10
6/105/10
1/102/10
2/102/10
10/108/10
8/106/10
7/106/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Fiorentina at homeAtalanta away
75
2/71/5
2/70/5
3/74/5
1.570.80
1.571.80
6/73/5
2/71/5
2/70/5
6/74/5
3/74/5
1/71/5
1/72/5
5/72/5
5/72/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Fiorentina: 1.31
Expected Goals
Atalanta: 1.76
Fiorentina
30%
Draw
21%
Atalanta
49%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.2%
1 — Fiorentina
2.30
Implied 41%
Edge -11.3%
X
3.60▼
Implied 26%
Edge -5.4%
2 — Atalanta
2.95
Implied 32%
Edge +16.8%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Fiorentina · # = league position now
18 Oct2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Como#5
1-3L
10 Oct2026
Genoa#17 vs Fiorentina#18
2-1L
20 Sept2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Napoli#10
1-1D
15 Sept2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Pisa#3
3-0W
11 Sept2026
Venezia#20 vs Fiorentina#18
2-4W
05 Sept2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Torino#8
1-2L
29 Aug2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Frosinone#6
0-3L
24 Aug2026
as Roma#3 vs Fiorentina#18
4-0L
14 Aug2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Benevento#8
4-1W
06 Aug2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Dep. a Coruna#9
1-1D
Team 2 Form
Atalanta · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Ajax#4 vs Atalanta#11
2-0L
18 Oct2026
ac Milan#4 vs Atalanta#11
3-2L
15 Oct2026
Atalanta#11 vs Pafos#5
3-1W
12 Oct2026
Atalanta#11 vs Venezia#20
3-1W
20 Sept2026
Juventus#9 vs Atalanta#11
2-0L
12 Sept2026
Atalanta#11 vs Cagliari#7
1-2L
05 Sept2026
as Roma#3 vs Atalanta#11
2-1L
31 Aug2026
Atalanta#11 vs Bologna#15
1-0W
27 Aug2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta#11
0-1W
23 Aug2026
Atalanta#11 vs Sassuolo#13
2-1W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
22 May2026
Fiorentina#18 vs Atalanta#11
1-1•
30 Nov2025
Atalanta#11 vs Fiorentina#18
2-0•
30 Mar2025
Fiorentina#18 vs Atalanta#11
1-0•
15 Sept2024
Atalanta#11 vs Fiorentina#18
3-2•
02 Jun2024
Atalanta#11 vs Fiorentina#18
2-3•
24 Apr2024
Atalanta#11 vs Fiorentina#18
4-1•
03 Apr2024
Fiorentina#18 vs Atalanta#11
1-0•
17 Sept2023
Fiorentina#18 vs Atalanta#11
3-2•
17 Apr2023
Fiorentina#18 vs Atalanta#11
1-1•
02 Oct2022
Atalanta#11 vs Fiorentina#18
1-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Fiorentina
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