Football · Bundesliga · Germany
Elversberg vs Mainz
Friday, 30 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Mainz favourites at 59% (Elversberg 24%, draw 17%). That rests on expected goals of 2.73 to 1.72. Bookmakers give Mainz about 46% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 70%.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals came in 8 of Elversberg's last 10 matches and 8 of Mainz's.
- Mainz kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Elversberg are 6th in Bundesliga on 10 points from 6 games; Mainz are 5th on 10.
- They last met on 12 Aug 2023, when Mainz won 1-0.
- Mainz have scored in all of their last 5 away games.
Germany•Bundesliga
vs
Friday, 30 October 2026 at 22:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 0-1-1
Last 10 matches
1010
20/1930/14
2.003.00
1.901.40
7/109/10
5/107/10
9/105/10
6/104/10
1/105/10
3/101/10
8/108/10
8/108/10
7/105/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Elversberg at homeMainz away
45
3/45/5
0/40/5
1/40/5
3.004.40
2.000.60
4/45/5
3/44/5
3/44/5
4/41/5
3/41/5
0/44/5
0/40/5
4/44/5
4/41/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Elversberg: 1.72
Expected Goals
Mainz: 2.73
Elversberg
24%
Draw
17%
Mainz
59%
Over 2.5: 81%
BTTS: 70%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.7%
1 — Elversberg
3.20
Implied 30%
Edge -5.6%
X
3.90
Implied 24%
Edge -7.3%
2 — Mainz
2.05
Implied 46%
Edge +12.8%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Elversberg · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
rb Leipzig#7 vs Elversberg#6
4-0L
17 Oct2026
Elversberg#6 vs Augsburg#10
4-3W
10 Oct2026
Union Berlin#17 vs Elversberg#6
1-0L
24 Sept2026
Mannheim vs Elversberg#6
2-1L
20 Sept2026
Schalke#15 vs Elversberg#6
0-0D
13 Sept2026
Elversberg#6 vs Bayern Munich#1
1-2L
05 Sept2026
b. Monchengladbach#18 vs Elversberg#6
3-4W
29 Aug2026
Elversberg#6 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
3-2W
22 Aug2026
Duisburg vs Elversberg#6
1-3W
15 Aug2026
Elversberg#6 vs Lorient#7
4-1W
Team 2 Form
Mainz · # = league position now
24 Oct2026
Mainz#5 vs Werder Bremen#8
2-3L
17 Oct2026
Schalke#15 vs Mainz#5
0-1W
10 Oct2026
Mainz#5 vs Bayer Leverkusen#4
3-4L
03 Oct2026
Mannheim vs Mainz#5
0-3W
19 Sept2026
b. Monchengladbach#18 vs Mainz#5
3-4W
12 Sept2026
Mainz#5 vs Eintracht Frankfurt#11
1-3L
06 Sept2026
Hamburger sv#9 vs Mainz#5
0-5W
29 Aug2026
Mainz#5 vs Paderborn#16
0-0D
23 Aug2026
Krieschow vs Mainz#5
0-9W
15 Aug2026
Mainz#5 vs Bournemouth#15
2-1W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
12 Aug2023
Elversberg#6 vs Mainz#5
0-1•
08 Aug2021
Elversberg#6 vs Mainz#5
2-2•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Elversberg
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