Derby vs Swansea

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Swansea favourites at 49% (Derby 28%, draw 23%). That rests on expected goals of 1.55 to 1.11 and 4 wins in Swansea's last 10 matches to 2 for Derby. It put over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 54%. Swansea won 3-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Derby have gone 5 matches without a win.
• They last met on 14 Feb 2026, when Derby won 2-0.