Millwall vs Derby

Match preview

The model makes Millwall favourites at 62% (Derby 18%, draw 20%). That rests on expected goals of 1.84 to 0.86, Millwall sitting 13th in the table to Derby's 23rd and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Millwall about 54% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 53%.

Key facts

• Derby have gone 8 matches without a win.
• They last met on 10 Mar 2026, when Millwall won 1-0.
• Only 2 of the last 10 meetings had three or more goals.