Derby vs Stoke

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Stoke favourites at 66% (Derby 16%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.10 to 0.89 and 5 wins in Stoke's last 10 matches to 1 for Derby. Derby lead the head-to-head 5-3, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 57%. Stoke won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Derby have gone 6 matches without a win.
• They last met on 6 Apr 2026, when Derby won 2-0.