Derby vs Cardiff

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Cardiff favourites at 70% (Derby 16%, draw 14%). That rests on expected goals of 2.92 to 1.38, 7 wins in Cardiff's last 10 matches to 3 for Derby and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 66%. It ended 2-2, a draw the model had put at 14%.

Key facts before the match

• Cardiff are unbeaten in 5 matches.
• They last met on 25 Jan 2025, when Cardiff won 2-1.