Carlisle vs Hornchurch

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Hornchurch favourites at 59% (Carlisle 22%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.15 to 1.24 and 7 wins in Hornchurch's last 10 matches to 5 for Carlisle. It put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 60%. Carlisle won 4-1, against the model's 59% for Hornchurch.