Birmingham vs Middlesbrough

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Middlesbrough favourites at 61% (Birmingham 20%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.13 to 1.13, 6 wins in Middlesbrough's last 10 matches to 3 for Birmingham and 8 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 62%. It ended 2-2, a draw the model had put at 19%.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 2 Mar 2026, when Middlesbrough won 3-1.