Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Arsenal favourites at 58% (Aston Villa 23%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.12 to 1.24, 6 wins in Arsenal's last 10 matches to 4 for Aston Villa and 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 3. It put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 62%. Arsenal won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Aston Villa have lost 4 matches in a row.
• They last met on 30 Dec 2025, when Arsenal won 4-1.