Arsenal vs Lille

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Arsenal favourites at 56% (Lille 22%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.72 to 0.97 and 8 wins in Arsenal's last 10 matches to 5 for Lille. It put over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 50%. Arsenal won 3-0, as the model expected.