Southampton vs Derby

Match preview

The model makes Southampton favourites at 84% (Derby 4%, draw 12%). That rests on expected goals of 2.39 to 0.35, Southampton sitting 6th in the table to Derby's 23rd, 6 wins in Southampton's last 10 matches to 1 for Derby and 4 wins from the last 10 meetings to 1. It puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 45%.

Key facts

• Derby have gone 8 matches without a win.
• Southampton average 2.6 goals a game at home.
• They last met on 11 Apr 2026, when Southampton won 2-1.