Southampton vs QPR

Match preview

The model makes Southampton favourites at 58% (QPR 21%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.78 to 0.97, 6 wins in Southampton's last 10 matches to 4 for QPR and 7 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Southampton about 56% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view. It puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 56%.

Key facts

• Southampton average 2.6 goals a game at home.
• Southampton are 6th in Championship on 20 points from 12 games; QPR are 8th on 20.
• They last met on 24 Feb 2026, when Southampton won 5-0.