Recordedmatch positions.

New York City II vs Cincinnati 2

Country

Usa

League

MLS Next Pro

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 00:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. The high-quality model gives the hosts 79%, while Cincinnati 2 are 1W-2D-7L and concede 2.6 goals per game. Main risk: Cincinnati won the April meeting 1-0.

Avai vs Sport Recife

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 01:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Sixth-placed Sport Recife are unbeaten in eight of ten against 17th-placed Avai, and the model puts the double chance at 72% with the market near 67%. Main risk: Avai have won four of the ten head-to-heads at home.

Fortaleza vs Sao Bernardo

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 01:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Fourth hosts twelfth, Sao Bernardo are 1W-3D-6L in their last ten, and the high-quality model puts the double chance at 76%. Main risk: only one prior head-to-head exists and no market odds are available.

Inter Miami II vs New England Revolution II

Country

Usa

League

MLS Next Pro

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 76%. The high-quality model gives the visitors 85%; Inter Miami II are 1W-1D-8L scoring 0.4 goals per game, and the Revolution won the last four head-to-heads. Main risk: MLS Next Pro road games carry extra variance.

Forge vs Supra du Quebec

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 67%. Second-placed Forge have won four straight at home form-wise, beat Supra in both prior meetings, and the high-quality model gives them 67%. Main risk: Supra du Quebec have scored in every one of their last ten games.

Atl. Ottawa vs Vancouver FC

Country

Canada

League

Canadian Premier League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. The model rates both teams to score at 73%; Atletico Ottawa hit BTTS in nine of ten while scoring and conceding 2.1 per game, Vancouver FC in seven of ten. Main risk: two of the last five head-to-heads finished with a clean sheet.

Crown Legacy vs Connecticut FC

Country

Usa

League

MLS Next Pro

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. The high-quality model rates over 2.5 at 76% and Connecticut FC cleared the line in all ten recent games while scoring 2.7 per match. Main risk: the sides have never met and Crown Legacy's own overs rate is just six of ten.

One Knoxville vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Country

Usa

League

USL League One

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Fourth-placed Knoxville are unbeaten in four head-to-heads with Portland (2W-2D), the visitors sit 12th with two wins in ten, and the high-quality model puts the double chance at 79%. Main risk: Portland arrive on back-to-back wins.

Orlando City vs Chicago Fire

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Chicago Fire have won eight of ten including the last three head-to-heads with Orlando, and the market makes them favourites at 2.16. Main risk: Orlando are solid at home and drew the most recent home meeting.

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. The high-quality model rates BTTS at 80%, both teams scored in all five recent head-to-heads including a 6-4, and both sides concede about two goals per game. Main risk: a one-sided blowout could leave one attack blank.

New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. League leaders Nashville are 6W-1D-3L, the model puts the double chance at 81%, and the market makes them clear favourites. Main risk: Red Bulls have historically handled Nashville well, winning four of nine head-to-heads.

Vila Nova FC vs Ponte Preta

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. The high-quality model gives third-placed Vila Nova 79% at home against bottom side Ponte Preta, who are winless in ten, and the market implies 69%. Main risk: six of the last ten head-to-heads were drawn and Vila Nova have lost six of their last ten.

Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Country

Usa

League

USL League One

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 02:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Chattanooga won the May head-to-head 4-1, have six wins in ten against Sarasota's two, and the high-quality model puts the double chance at 80%. Main risk: Chattanooga's away form is streaky with four defeats in ten.

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 03:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. St. Louis City are unbeaten in ten (7W-3D-0L) and won the July derby, while Sporting KC have lost six of ten; the model puts this double chance at 90%. Main risk: the win market prices St. Louis at only about 47%, so the model is well ahead of the market.

Minnesota United vs Atlanta Utd

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. The market implies about 79% for Minnesota avoiding defeat at home and Atlanta United are 2W-2D-6L with 2.1 goals conceded per game. Main risk: Minnesota have won just once in ten, leaning heavily on draws.

Botafogo SP vs Criciuma

Country

Brazil

League

Serie B

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Leaders Criciuma are 7W-2D-1L conceding 0.4 per game and won the last three head-to-heads with Botafogo SP. Main risk: the market prices this match almost even and Botafogo have won six of ten at home.

Corpus Christi FC vs New York Cosmos

Country

Usa

League

USL League One

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 03:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. The high-quality model gives the hosts 77%; New York Cosmos sit 17th with two wins in ten scoring 0.6 per game. Main risk: July's only head-to-head finished 0-0 and no market odds are available.

North Texas vs Austin FC II

Country

Usa

League

MLS Next Pro

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 03:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Runaway leaders Austin FC II are 7W-2D-1L and won the last two head-to-heads without conceding, and the high-quality model gives them 76%. Main risk: four of the last ten meetings with North Texas were drawn.

Colorado Rapids vs Los Angeles FC

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 04:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. LAFC are 6W-3D-1L conceding 0.5 per game, the model puts the double chance at 83%, and their last two trips to Colorado both avoided defeat. Main risk: altitude away days are awkward and the win market is only about 40%.

Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs

Country

Usa

League

USL Championship

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 05:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Colorado Springs won six of ten head-to-heads including both 2026 meetings, and Phoenix Rising have one win in their last ten. Main risk: the market narrowly favours the hosts, disagreeing with the model's 78% double chance.

Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC

Country

Usa

League

MLS

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 05:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. All five head-to-heads with San Diego cleared 2.5 goals, Portland's games went over in nine of ten, and the high-quality model rates the line at 70%. Main risk: San Diego's own recent games are only five of ten over.

KaPa vs Jippo

Country

Finland

League

Ykkosliiga

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 18:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 82%. Jippo are projected for 1.98 goals, KaPa conceded in all 10 recent matches, and Jippo scored in all 10 H2Hs. Main risk: Jippo failed to score in 3/10 of their own recent matches.

KaPa vs Jippo

Country

Finland

League

Ykkosliiga

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 18:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 67%. Jippo are unbeaten in six straight head-to-heads with KaPa including 3-0 and 2-0 wins this season, while KaPa are 1W-1D-8L in their last ten. Main risk: Jippo's own away form is draw-heavy, and the market prices this closer to 60%.

Xorazm Urganch vs Lok. Tashkent

Country

Uzbekistan

League

Super League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 18:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. The high-quality model makes Lok. Tashkent clear favourites (52% win, 22% draw) with the better expected-goals line, and Xorazm have lost or drawn seven of their last ten. Main risk: Lok. Tashkent's own form is uneven at 4W-2D-4L and no market odds are available for a sanity check.

Neftekhimik vs Sochi

Country

Russia

League

FNL

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 18:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Sochi have never lost to Neftekhimik in their four recorded meetings (three wins, one draw), the model gives them a 2.05 to 0.92 expected-goals edge, and the match-winner market prices Sochi at 1.78. Main risk: Sochi's away form includes several draws and FNL matches are low-margin.

Lincoln Red Imps (GIB) vs Larne (NIR)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. Lincoln Red Imps are unbeaten in five of their last six at home in Gibraltar and won the home leg of this fixture 2-1 in 2024, with the model rating them 55% to win outright. Main risk: Larne won the return leg 3-1 and no market odds are available to verify the line.

Inter Turku (FIN) vs FC Copenhagen (DEN)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. FC Copenhagen are unbeaten in their last ten (8W-2D) and the away side is priced at 1.68 to win outright, implying roughly 80% for the double chance. Main risk: Conference League away trips to artificial surfaces in Finland have tripped up bigger clubs before.

Mjallby (SWE) vs Salzburg (AUT)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 19:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Salzburg carry the stronger squad and a 2.24 to 1.19 expected-goals edge, and the market makes them 1.72 favourites away, implying about 80% for the double chance. Main risk: Mjallby were Allsvenskan title contenders last season and are dangerous at home despite recent mixed form.

Nordsjaelland (DEN) vs St. Gallen (SUI)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. The model gives over 2.5 a 76% chance with 4.04 expected goals, and all 10 St. Gallen recent matches cleared the line. Main risk: Nordsjaelland's own recent sample cleared 2.5 only 5/10 and there is no H2H sample.

Lech Poznan (POL) vs Thun (SUI)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. The model rates over 2.5 at 78% with 3.98 expected goals, and each side's last ten cleared the line in 8/10. Main risk: there is no direct H2H evidence and the model quality is medium.

Nordsjaelland (DEN) vs St. Gallen (SUI)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. Nordsjaelland have won six of their last ten, hold home advantage with a 2.55 expected-goals line, and the 1.82 home price implies roughly 80% for home-or-draw. Main risk: St. Gallen have won five of their last ten and both sides attack openly, which raises variance.

Besiktas (TUR) vs Kauno Zalgiris (LTU)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 85%. Besiktas host a Lithuanian side priced at 14.5 to win, with the 1.18 home price implying more than 90% for home-or-draw. Main risk: playoff second-leg rotation could make the match closer than the squad gap suggests.

Lech Poznan (POL) vs Thun (SUI)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 68%. The model projects 4.0 combined expected goals (2.30 vs 1.68) and rates over 2.5 at 78%, with Lech having won eight of ten while Thun leak goals away. Main risk: European playoff ties are often more cautious than league form suggests.

Klaksvik (FAI) vs Riga FC (LAT)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 74%. Riga FC are unbeaten in ten (9W-1D), the model gives them a 2.17 to 1.13 expected-goals edge, and their 1.82 away price implies roughly 77% for the double chance. Main risk: Klaksvik's artificial pitch and long travel have produced Faroese upsets in Europe before.

PAOK (GRE) vs Brann (NOR)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 20:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. The model gives over 2.5 a 76% chance; PAOK and Brann cleared the line in 7/10 and 9/10 recent matches. Main risk: the only listed H2H finished below 2.5 and the winner market disagrees with the model's even matchup.

Vikingur Reykjavik (ICE) vs Borac Banja Luka (BIH)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. The model rates over 2.5 at 75%; Vikingur's last ten cleared the line in 9/10 and Borac's in 6/10. Main risk: the only listed H2H stayed under 2.5 and the model quality is medium.

Al Fayha vs Al Hilal

Country

Saudi Arabia

League

Saudi Professional League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 88%. Al Hilal are projected for 2.23 goals, scored in 9/10 recent matches, and scored in 9/10 H2Hs while Al Fayha conceded in 8/10. Main risk: Al Hilal did blank once recently and no exact team-to-score price was available.

Drita (KOS) vs Inter Escaldes (AND)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. The model rates BTTS at 76%; the teams' recent samples landed BTTS in 8/10 and 7/10, and the available H2H also did. Main risk: there is only one H2H and the model quality is medium.

Al Fayha vs Al Hilal

Country

Saudi Arabia

League

Saudi Professional League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Al Hilal have won five of the last six head-to-heads without conceding more than once, the high-quality model rates them 74%, and the market prices them at 1.23. Main risk: early-season sharpness and possible rotation in the opening rounds.

Vikingur Reykjavik (ICE) vs Borac Banja Luka (BIH)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. Vikingur won this exact home fixture 2-0 in 2024, hold a 2.27 to 1.63 expected-goals edge, and their 1.72 home price implies roughly 80% for home-or-draw. Main risk: Borac have lost only three of their last ten and travel well in qualifiers.

Crvena zvezda (SRB) vs Plzen (CZE)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 75%. Crvena zvezda are strong at home in European qualifiers, the model favours them 54% to 27%, and the 1.66 home price implies roughly 80% for home-or-draw. Main risk: Plzen are experienced European travellers who drew or won five of their last ten.

Sion (SUI) vs Ajax (NED)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:15 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. The model rates over 2.5 at 76% with 3.81 expected goals; Sion's and Ajax's last ten cleared the line in 9/10 and 7/10. Main risk: there is no H2H evidence and the winner market strongly disagrees with the model, adding identity or strength uncertainty.

Lugano (SUI) vs Maccabi Tel Aviv (ISR)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:30 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 70%. Lugano have won eight of their last ten and the 1.94 home price implies roughly 74% for home-or-draw, in line with the model's 72%. Main risk: Maccabi Tel Aviv are also 7W-2D-1L and regularly grind out away results in Europe.

Hearts (SCO) vs SK Rapid (AUT)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 72%. The model gives over 2.5 a 76% chance with 3.97 expected goals; Hearts and Rapid cleared the line in 7/10 and 8/10. Main risk: there is no H2H sample and the winner prices disagree with the model's side probabilities.

Rouen vs Quevilly Rouen

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Rouen lost only 2/10 recent matches, Quevilly won only 2/10, and Rouen avoided defeat in 8/10 H2Hs; the current win-and-draw prices imply about a 78% non-loss share after vig. Main risk: Rouen still lost twice recently and twice in the H2H sample.

Caen vs Aubagne

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 87%. Caen are projected for 2.62 goals and scored in 9/10 recent matches, while Aubagne conceded in all 10; Caen also scored in both H2Hs. Main risk: the H2H sample has only two matches and Caen did blank once recently.

Rouen vs Quevilly Rouen

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 78%. Rouen are 5W-3D-2L, won three of their last five, and the derby head-to-head is dominated by draws and Rouen wins, with Quevilly winless in their last five (2W-5D-3L overall). Main risk: this derby produced a Quevilly win as recently as April 2025.

Bourg en Bresse vs Thionville

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 71%. Thionville have won four of their last five with a 4-3 win over Caen and a 3-0 away win at Aubagne, and the high-quality model gives them a 1.99 to 1.05 expected-goals edge. Main risk: no market odds are available for this National fixture to verify the line.

Caen vs Aubagne

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 67%. Caen won this home fixture 3-0 last season, the high-quality model rates them 75% with a 2.62 expected-goals line, and Aubagne are 1W-3D-6L in their last ten. Main risk: Aubagne beat Caen 3-1 at home in May and the market prices Caen nearer 61%.

La Roche vs Cannes

Country

France

League

National

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 21:45 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 73%. La Roche are unbeaten in ten (5W-5D) including a win at Amiens, and the high-quality model rates home-or-draw at 80% with a clear expected-goals edge. Main risk: Cannes have won five of their last ten and no market odds are available to verify the line.

Benfica (POR) vs Aarhus (DEN)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 22:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 69%. The model rates over 2.5 at 78% with 4.06 expected goals, and both teams' last ten cleared the line in 8/10. Main risk: both listed H2Hs stayed under 2.5, so the direct evidence conflicts with current form.

Benfica (POR) vs Aarhus (DEN)

Country

Europe

League

Europa League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 22:00 GMT+3

Estimated probability: 80%. Benfica host a mid-table Danish side in a playoff first leg with a 2.71 to 1.35 expected-goals edge and a 1.15 market price implying about 87%. Main risk: playoff first legs can stay tight if the visitors defend deep and Benfica settle for control.

Hajduk Split (CRO) vs Rakow (POL)

Country

Europe

League

Conference League

Match time

Thu, Aug 20, 22:00 GMT+3