Thursday, November 5, 2026
Lillestrom
Plzen
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 72%. Model over 2.5 at 80%; Lillestrom's last 5 home games and Plzen's last 5 away games all went over 2.5. Main risk: Lillestrom 2:9 in the league phase, so they may not score.
Midtjylland
Ajax
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 68%. Model BTTS 74%; Midtjylland BTTS in 4 of 5 at home and Ajax in 4 of 4 away, both sides average 2+ goals. Main risk: Midtjylland have scored only 1 in two league-phase games.
Match intelligence
Conference League
08:45 PM GMT+3
2 recent head-to-head meetings available
KuPS
Gent
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 80%. Model 87% for Gent or draw, market about 81%; KuPS 2-3-5 in last 10 and 2:6 in the league phase. Main risk: Gent have lost 2 of their last 10 and are 1-0-1 in the league phase.
Lincoln Red Imps
Hajduk Split
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 84%. Hajduk 8-1-1 in last 10 and priced 1.30 to win; model 79% for the double chance. Main risk: Lincoln won 7 of their last 10 and score 2.5 per game at home.
Match intelligence
Conference League
08:45 PM GMT+3
Twente
Pafos
Claude pick
Listed odds
1.30
Estimated probability: 77%. Twente 8-1-1 in last 10 incl. 9-0 at Excelsior and 2-0 at AZ; model 86%, market about 75%. Main risk: Pafos are hard to beat (5 draws in last 10).
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Claude pick
Listed odds
1.14
Estimated probability: 80%. Benfica 9-0-1 in last 10 and 3-0 in the league phase (10:2); Lech 1:9 there and lost 0-4 to Leverkusen. Main risk: Lech won 5 of their last 10 and the price is short.
Match intelligence
Europa League
11:00 PM GMT+3
2 recent head-to-head meetings available
FC Copenhagen
Iberia 1999
Claude pick
Listed odds
1.17
Estimated probability: 72%. Market about 81%, model 67%; Copenhagen won their last 2 and beat Braga 3-0 at home. Main risk: three draws in their last 5, and Iberia drew with Mjallby.
Match intelligence
Conference League
11:00 PM GMT+3
Lugano
Kauno Zalgiris
Claude pick
Listed odds
1.17
Estimated probability: 76%. Lugano 8-1-1 in last 10 incl. 5-2 at Getafe and 3-2 v Crvena zvezda; Kauno Zalgiris 1:8 in the league phase. Main risk: Lugano concede 1.5 per home game.
Match intelligence
Conference League
11:00 PM GMT+3
Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
Claude pick
Listed odds
1.40
Estimated probability: 68%. Leverkusen 3-0 in the league phase (8:0); Marseille 0-3 (1:6); model 71%, market about 70%. Main risk: Leverkusen lost 2-4 to Stuttgart and 0-3 at Hoffenheim in the last 10 days.
Match intelligence
Europa League
11:00 PM GMT+3
2 recent head-to-head meetings available
Panathinaikos
CSKA Sofia
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 82%. Panathinaikos 9-0-1 in last 10 incl. 2-0 v AEK and 5-1 at Kairat; model 89% for the double chance. Main risk: CSKA Sofia are 6-3-1 and drew at Nordsjaelland.
Match intelligence
Conference League
11:00 PM GMT+3
2 recent head-to-head meetings available
Univ. Craiova
Egnatia
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 82%. Craiova unbeaten in last 10 (8-2-0), conceding 0.5 at home; model 86% for the double chance. Main risk: Egnatia drew with Midtjylland and at Aarhus.
Match intelligence
Conference League
11:00 PM GMT+3
Getafe
Brighton
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 80%. Brighton 7-2-1 in last 10 incl. 1-0 at Man City; model 93% for the double chance, market about 82%. Main risk: away in Spain, and Getafe beat Sevilla 3-1 on 1 Nov.
Match intelligence
Conference League
11:00 PM GMT+3
2 recent head-to-head meetings available
Monaco
Nordsjaelland
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 82%. Model 83%, market about 85% for the double chance; Monaco 2-0 in the league phase, Nordsjaelland 2-5-3 in last 10. Main risk: Monaco conceded in 3 of 5 home games.
Match intelligence
Conference League
11:00 PM GMT+3
Sturm Graz
Celje
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 78%. Model 84%, market about 82% for the double chance; Sturm unbeaten in 4 home H2H with Celje and average 2.4 goals at home. Main risk: Sturm only 4-3-3 in last 10.
Match intelligence
Europa League
11:00 PM GMT+3
4 recent head-to-head meetings available
Celtic
Besiktas
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 72%. Celtic 2-1-7 in last 10 and 0-3 in the league phase (3:9); Besiktas 6-2-2; model 81%, market about 67%. Main risk: Celtic at home, and Besiktas concede 2.0 per away game.
Riga FC
Jablonec
Claude pick
Estimated probability: 70%. Riga unbeaten in last 10 (6-4-0) and concede 0.6 away; model 75%, market about 69%. Main risk: Riga draw often and Jablonec have won 4 of their last 10.
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