Kostyuk M. vs Pegula J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Pegula won a set in eight of ten completed hard matches from August 22 to November 9 and won six. She beat Cirstea and Kenin 2-0, beat Swiatek 2-1 and took a set from Gauff on November 9. Kostyuk won three of eight current hard matches and lost her latest match 0-2 to Noskova. The high-quality match-win model favors Pegula 62%. Main risk: Kostyuk won their January hard H2H 2-0 and took sets from Sakkari and Samsonova. Pegula lost her latest two matches in three sets to Gauff and Ostapenko. The older H2H and recent match losses limit the estimate. All stated current samples are independently dated within August 12–November 10, 2026, excluding stale, duplicate and incomplete rows. Current primary-source JSON confirms the exact future fixture, epoch kickoff and pre-match stage with no score fields. The exact current set-market price could not be verified.