Tennis · Finals Indian Wells · World · hard
Kostyuk M. vs Pegula J.
Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Pegula J. a 62% chance on hard courts. That rests on 5 wins from the last 9 matches on hard courts to 3. Bookmakers give Pegula J. about 62% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view.
Key facts
- Kostyuk M. has lost 5 matches in a row.
- Pegula J. has lost 3 matches in a row.
- They last met on 26 Apr 2026, when Kostyuk M. won 2-0.
World•WTA•Finals Indian Wells•hard
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 23:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Kostyuk M.Pegula J.
38%
62%
Kostyuk M. · all surfaces (latest first)
L1d
L19d
L27d
L52d
L64d
W66d
W68d
W71d
L79d
5 straight losses · 1 at Finals Indian Wells · 4 at other events (Ningbo, Wuhan)
On hard3–5 · 38%· won 1+ set 6/8
L1d
L19d
L27d
L52d
L64d
W66d
W68d
W71d
L79d
5 straight losses · 1 at Finals Indian Wells · 4 at other events (Ningbo, Wuhan)
Pegula J. · all surfaces (latest first)
L0d
L26d
L59d
W61d
W63d
W66d
W68d
W71d
L77d
W79d
3 straight losses · 1 at Finals Indian Wells · 2 at other events (Wuhan, US Open)
On hard6–4 · 60%· won 1+ set 8/10
L0d
L26d
L59d
W61d
W63d
W66d
W68d
W71d
L77d
W79d
3 straight losses · 1 at Finals Indian Wells · 2 at other events (Wuhan, US Open)
Recent form
Kostyuk M. · all surfacesPegula J. · all surfaces
810
3/86/10
5/84/10
38%60%
3/83/10
2/82/10
6/88/10
3/85/10
9 / 1014 / 11
-1+3
Limited sample — Kostyuk M. has 8 matches on record.
On hard (this match's surface)
Kostyuk M. · last 8 on hardPegula J. · last 10 on hard
810
3/86/10
5/84/10
38%60%
3/83/10
2/82/10
6/88/10
3/85/10
9 / 1014 / 11
-1+3
Head-to-head
3/74/7
32
7 meetings · 2 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 6.7%
Kostyuk M.
2.50
Implied 38%
Edge +0.5%
Pegula J.
1.50
Implied 62%
Edge -0.5%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Kostyuk M.
38%
Pegula J.
62%
high confidenceData 90%hard6 H2H used
◀ Kostyuk M.Why the model leansPegula J. ▶
Ranking
-0.29
Surface
0.00
Form
+0.01
H2H
-0.06
Model v2.3-2026-06
Kostyuk M. Form
Kostyuk M.
Pegula J. Form
Pegula J.
Head-to-Head
Last 10
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