Galarneau A. vs Kozlov S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Kozlov won a set in seven of nine completed hard matches from September 22 to November 8 and won six. His five latest matches were wins, including Mayo and Chidekh 2-1 and Shick and Cassone 2-0. Galarneau won three of ten current hard matches and lost his latest five in straight sets. The high-quality match-win model favors Kozlov 59%. Main risk: Galarneau is ranked 192 to Kozlov 205 and beat Ymer 2-0 earlier in the sample. Kozlov lost 0-2 to Rehberg and Smith. His January 2026 hard H2H win over Galarneau was 2-1 and is outside the current sample. All stated current samples are independently dated within August 12–November 10, 2026, excluding stale, duplicate and incomplete rows. Current primary-source JSON confirms the exact future fixture, epoch kickoff and pre-match stage with no score fields. The exact current set-market price could not be verified.