Bellucci M. vs Sonego L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Bellucci won a set in all ten completed recent hard-court matches, including 2-0 over Tirante and Carreno-Busta on consecutive days and 2-1 over Etcheverry. He is ranked 66 versus 91 and beat Sonego 2-1 in April. The model gives 62% for the narrower match win. Main risk: Sonego just beat Vallejo and Munar 2-1 and won a set in eight of ten recent matches. Bellucci lost 1-2 to Atmane and Zhou, and the only H2H carries limited weight. No current exact set-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.