Manchester City vs Brighton

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Manchester City and Brighton combine for 17/20 recent games over 1.5 and 10/12 in the relevant venues. City beat Ipswich 3-2 and Norwich 5-0 at home, while Brighton won 3-2 at Manchester Utd and lost 3-4 at Chelsea. The last-ten goal totals are 28:12 and 26:9; recent H2Hs consistently had two or more goals. Model total: 3.97. Main risk: Brighton have just gone scoreless against Liverpool and Jablonec, and City have two recent 1-0 wins. Cup rotation and large European-score outliers mean the higher over 2.5 line is avoided. No current exact-market price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.