Khachanov K. vs Alcaraz C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 85%. Alcaraz took a set in 6/7 verified completed recent best-of-three hard matches, including wins over Lehecka, Munar, Arnaldi, Michelsen and Fritz. He beat Khachanov 2-1 in February 2026 and 2-0 in September 2024. The incomplete Shapovalov match and best-of-five matches are excluded from the comparable rate. Main risk: Alcaraz most recently lost 0-2 to Bergs. Khachanov won six of ten and beat Machac and Auger-Aliassime, so the estimate does not imply an easy match or a guaranteed result. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.